TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,838
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,840

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,838 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under49c4,842$2,374 inLost-$2,374.369,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under43c2,385$1,024 inLost-$1,024.148,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Over54c1,000$540 inWon+$46026149.4%129 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Over54c1,000$540 inWon+$46029149.5%144 W · 147 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over53c825$437 inWon+$387.751,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over49c796.96$391 inWon+$406.454,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under50c706$353 inLost-$3536,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over50c621.13$312 inWon+$308.783,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Over55c552.3$301 inWon+$250.8419135.6%68 W · 123 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfaa…3858backed Over49c510.2$250 inWon+$260.23253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under46c474.59$216 inLost-$216.163,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under49c455.23$223 inLost-$222.944,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Over54c311.27$168 inWon+$143.2645850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Under50c200$100 inLost-$10024946.6%116 W · 133 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f43…c0c2backed Over49c200$98 inWon+$10223435.9%84 W · 150 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Under47c200$94 inLost-$9422453.1%119 W · 105 L+29.4wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+29.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under8c200$16 inLost-$161,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e9c…e966backed Over56c178.57$100 inWon+$78.5714547.6%69 W · 76 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ae…811bbacked Over50c174$87 inWon+$8717545.7%80 W · 95 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under44c157.74$69 inLost-$69.414,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Over49c118.2$58 inWon+$60.2862541.9%262 W · 363 L-32.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9698…2504backed Over49c102.04$50 inWon+$52.043946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over50c100.11$50 inWon+$50.111,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over49c81.63$40 inWon+$41.6360346.4%280 W · 323 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0373…6d6bbacked Under46c80$37 inLost-$36.86750.7%34 W · 33 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under46c66.2$31 inLost-$30.711,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c39…20eebacked Under51c60.24$31 inLost-$30.7235843.6%156 W · 202 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under50c51.72$26 inLost-$25.862,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under46c51.6$24 inLost-$23.743,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over53c50$27 inWon+$23.51,15153.7%618 W · 533 L-41.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Under48c50$24 inLost-$2463555.6%353 W · 282 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd9…aea9backed Over50c40$20 inWon+$2010156.4%57 W · 44 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Over49c27.45$13 inWon+$1438242.9%164 W · 218 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4884…f519backed Under51c27.45$14 inLost-$147642.1%32 W · 44 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Over50c21.8$11 inWon+$10.952552%273 W · 252 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Under49c21.2$10 inLost-$10.4840849%200 W · 208 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.