NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91e8eef4b2a05727c191835f659c584f7cf99104260a863e458362f77c0e0a4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 44c | 467.32$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.56 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 65c | 326.67$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.51 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd4…676ebacked Under | 58c | 326.11$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Over | 40c | 313.33$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 59c | 250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66dd…893dbacked Under | 47c | 212.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.7wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 55c | 200$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 60c | 144$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Under | 59c | 132$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 59c | 127.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 57c | 118.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…a6efbacked Over | 43c | 118.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 58c | 114.6$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…a251backed Over | 42c | 112.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…7f28backed Over | 42c | 110.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa839…6f8cbacked Over | 42c | 104.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 54c | 96.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 348 | 49.7%173 W · 175 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 68c | 81.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 72c | 43.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 56c | 30.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Over | 42c | 25.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x485d…fc8abacked Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5this page
- Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Moses Moody: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 29.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 13.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Pat Spencer: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.