NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53fc38cf92efee04b69fdcf991f33a197867faff6029b6c75d94d4447f7fc32d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Nuggets, Warriors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe0a…4a63backed Nuggets | 47c | 62,613$29,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,202.23 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 54c | 18,478$10,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,437.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Warriors | 52c | 16,882$8,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,103.23 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Warriors | 56c | 6,000$3,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,643.23 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors | 50c | 5,967$2,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,988.07 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Warriors | 54c | 3,704$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.7 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Nuggets | 46c | 3,452$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,588.51 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 54c | 3,337$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,535.02 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Warriors | 48c | 3,169$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,641.59 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 53c | 2,330$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.46 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Nuggets | 51c | 1,948$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.04 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Nuggets | 46c | 1,816$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.82 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Warriors | 54c | 1,740$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.4 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6de8backed Warriors | 75c | 1,300$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 84 | 60.7%51 W · 33 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Warriors | 54c | 1,117$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.82 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Warriors | 53c | 1,083$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.07 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Warriors | 54c | 1,007$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.31 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Warriors | 54c | 858.71$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.01 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Nuggets | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5df…382dbacked Nuggets | 41c | 538.44$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.26 | 163 | 35.6%58 W · 105 L | -12.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Warriors | 54c | 509.03$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.73 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Warriors | 62c | 506.79$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.26 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Warriors | 54c | 384.7$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.05 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Warriors | 55c | 306.14$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.28 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Nuggets | 53c | 302.88$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.53 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Warriors | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Warriors | 54c | 299.26$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.66 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Warriors | 57c | 229.8$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.43 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d7…e17cbacked Nuggets | 46c | 218.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Nuggets | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Warriors | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 270 | 52.6%142 W · 128 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 55c | 171.55$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…9ef8backed Warriors | 64c | 157.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.18 | 285 | 54.7%156 W · 129 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb5…c2adbacked Warriors | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…c2efbacked Warriors | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…b214backed Warriors | 56c | 119.87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Nuggets | 46c | 112.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Nuggets | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 234 | 46.2%108 W · 126 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Warriors | 49c | 101.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Warriors | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec55…6870backed Warriors | 56c | 95.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Nuggets | 41c | 87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…d504backed Nuggets | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…a67dbacked Nuggets | 53c | 77.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -10.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Nuggets | 35c | 71.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Warriors | 78c | 70.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Nuggets | 51c | 52.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 293 | 52.6%154 W · 139 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Warriors | 52c | 50.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Warriors | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Nuggets | 46c | 46.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Warriors | 49c | 44.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed Nuggets | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 50.2%121 W · 120 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d7…42c1backed Nuggets | 52c | 42.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Nuggets | 33c | 39.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 106 | 37.7%40 W · 66 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd27…4721backed Warriors | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 104 | 57.7%60 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…6fd3backed Nuggets | 41c | 30.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…b665backed Warriors | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Warriors | 53c | 30.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1d…0b3fbacked Nuggets | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Warriors | 66c | 18.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)this page
- Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Moses Moody: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 29.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 13.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Pat Spencer: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.