NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b417ba7a019efba365073d3bae1195637c8b7a8fac0e7ba7fba641d34196031
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x906f…88b4backed Over | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed Under | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 187 | 47.1%88 W · 99 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabef…3004backed Under | 50c | 6,300$3,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,138 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 47c | 4,602$2,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,436.73 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 48c | 4,173$1,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,180.98 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…9ad4backed Over | 52c | 3,822$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,821.77 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 3,507$1,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,831.42 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 51c | 2,822$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,453.21 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdda6…e5f3backed Under | 53c | 2,800$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a95…000bbacked Over | 47c | 2,800$1,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,484 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Over | 51c | 1,969$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.63 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 47c | 1,790$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.7 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 50c | 1,518$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…a6efbacked Over | 51c | 1,368$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.32 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 57c | 1,163$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.91 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 1,117$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Over | 51c | 1,072$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.42 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 963.51$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.3 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 702.42$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.92 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 48c | 664.96$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.31 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 11c | 571.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Over | 44c | 530$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.8 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 49c | 450$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.5 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4b…1ff9backed Over | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf926…fb21backed Under | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 52c | 154$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Over | 48c | 103.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…8158backed Under | 51c | 98.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -6.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 92.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 45c | 87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 51c | 60.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x220e…3b20backed Over | 51c | 59.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Under | 49c | 59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 227 | 56.8%129 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed Over | 46c | 55.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 151 | 56.3%85 W · 66 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 55c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…3acebacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 50.2%121 W · 120 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe236…cfcdbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 66c | 21.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 48c | 21.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd80…7503backed Over | 52c | 21.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edf…97a1backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5this page
- Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Moses Moody: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 29.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 13.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Pat Spencer: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.