NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2a11dc9e5fa3b3d97fca1de45abb26533a39aff9471e7c24334b877b070a657
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 10,195$4,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,307.15 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 50c | 6,940$3,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,446.95 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Under | 53c | 6,774$3,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,590 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4e1abacked Over | 46c | 1,069$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577 | 151 | 47%71 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…f1b7backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 52c | 936.4$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.87 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 51c | 783.99$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.16 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 48c | 783.44$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.92 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 774.46$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.49 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 754.19$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.01 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 47c | 744$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.32 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 414.14$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.79 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 53c | 352$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.56 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 48c | 270.83$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.01 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 37c | 250.83$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.68 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 46c | 234.39$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.57 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 53c | 228.72$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.22 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 51c | 221.86$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.84 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Under | 52c | 157.52$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 76c | 153.41$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 9c | 143.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 51c | 140$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 51c | 111.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 49c | 105$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…8158backed Under | 52c | 94.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -6.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Under | 53c | 50.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 53c | 50.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 47c | 50.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 65c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…12ffbacked Under | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Over | 49c | 35.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 49c | 24.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Over | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 51c | 23.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 215 | 53.5%115 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5this page
- Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Christian Braun: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Moses Moody: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 29.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 13.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Pat Spencer: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.