TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$139,407

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,407 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 350 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9d84…1344backed Yes26c11,586$2,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,996.2612923.3%30 W · 99 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-57.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee37…89febacked Yes25c3,647$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.931040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+44.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x838f…bb46backed Yes29c3,470$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No72c2,705$1,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.1215641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfaa…c089backed Yes29c2,603$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.09742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes27c2,563$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.426917.4%12 W · 57 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No73c2,345$1,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.848236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes28c2,232$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.334930.6%15 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes27c2,222$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.11248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-63.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x270e…2930backed Yes28c2,027$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.564829.2%14 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e7e…128bbacked Yes1c1,900$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-40.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfe4…4975backed Yes26c1,866$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.38616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-73.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed Yes34c1,843$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.879238%35 W · 57 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes30c1,800$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5408422.6%19 W · 65 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes21c1,600$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3364827.1%13 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes26c1,553$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.611637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No79c1,491$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31636538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes27c1,389$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.936127.9%17 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes26c1,380$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.82948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+61.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes27c1,312$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.53458.9%4 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-76.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No65c1,305$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.91650%8 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ac7…78c7backed No74c1,257$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.821060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+80.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No70c1,218$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.073938.5%15 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Yes26c1,159$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.98250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked Yes28c1,032$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.963745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes27c1,007$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.3617821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-36.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes29c999.99$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2904247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd5…57acbacked Yes28c999.97$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1930…691cbacked Yes26c978.36$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502740.7%11 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes27c946$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.423056.7%17 W · 13 L+4.5wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+87.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa487…474bbacked Yes27c932.94$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ee…a587backed Yes25c930.33$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.791030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes30c925$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.071717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-69.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes27c898$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.7429926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed No74c848$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.482839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf31b…241bbacked No71c824.7$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf58d…a617backed No72c813$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.642055%11 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed No72c784$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.613751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf36c…6b40backed Yes29c764.34$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2251625%4 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No72c673.28$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.778752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No74c658.29$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.8616741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8733…0626backed Yes29c650.78$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.73540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+28.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes28c648.99$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.721127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe742…419cbacked Yes30c633.33$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes25c631.31$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.96156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-89.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b6f…6890backed Yes25c630$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.5742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4999…cc96backed Yes20c566.79$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.391711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3395…7c66backed Yes26c542.97$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401250%6 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+49.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x70e7…4a70backed No75c507$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.75650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes30c500.55$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15015739.5%62 W · 95 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No75c499.99$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1254238.1%16 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9518…c9e3backed Yes29c499.99$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.7340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a65…8d8fbacked Yes23c499.94$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9960%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcaf…9916backed Yes32c496.81$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.981030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab6d…92b3backed No73c494$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.382100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+281%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e81…b4dbbacked Yes28c488.59$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13870%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Yes8c485$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.261020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9018…e3afbacked Yes27c479.58$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-75.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked No73c475$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1263815.8%6 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-70.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes10c458.67$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2312938.8%50 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6897…63b6backed Yes26c452$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.52540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca3…9546backed No73c452$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.04933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd07…0058backed Yes28c448$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.441833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid0%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes31c444$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.145123.5%12 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No72c441.15$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.7623041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09aa…bdb6backed Yes24c421.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100140%0 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes24c419.39$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1710632.1%34 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes28c413.07$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.4328528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1055…7dd4backed Yes25c405.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb407…21c2backed Yes23c405$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5de3…e096backed Yes30c401.67$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47eb…8195backed Yes26c396$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.961662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+38.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd44…f151backed Yes32c392.05$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1257839.7%31 W · 47 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes25c364.82$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.047619.7%15 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ec8…e8eabacked Yes29c361.34$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes31c355.82$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1107450%37 W · 37 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e2a…60c2backed Yes38c340.08$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xddba…d778backed Yes29c339.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d91…186ebacked No74c337.84$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904d…8fd8backed Yes30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes27c311.51$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0420841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee9…b637backed Yes25c310.39$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb9f…b445backed Yes26c307.69$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0306…dcf6backed Yes32c302.53$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.811050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes23c300$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6923741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77fd…b6c8backed No69c299.99$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+31.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No72c298.94$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3313337.6%50 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x302a…74e6backed Yes29c298.59$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab92…15ddbacked No73c291$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.57425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-65.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes27c288$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.762454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Yes29c287$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.233652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54ae…57e8backed No71c287$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Yes24c286$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.641838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No63c286$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0823751.9%123 W · 114 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a90…4964backed Yes35c285.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68e…5620backed Yes27c281.74$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2682…5141backed Yes26c280.22$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes23c275.21$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.013228.1%9 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-42.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.