Movies · resolved market
Will It Was Just An Accident win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef0458b38de9246dbce535a245531bae4770372d1c25a4c99b07f0381781a253
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,803 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6f5…8d89backed Yes | 9c | 11,501$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 5c | 9,503$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.16 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 8,046$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.56 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c80…a49dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,953$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,274$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.16 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2808…16babacked Yes | 8c | 4,639$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.67 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -85%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc5…da90backed Yes | 8c | 4,476$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e2…ce3cbacked Yes | 10c | 3,419$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…8bd5backed Yes | 8c | 2,921$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.18 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x115a…e4a6backed Yes | 6c | 2,816$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 3c | 2,699$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.26 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 5c | 2,178$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.59 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5078…992cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,152$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b0…dc4bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,548$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fa…8135backed Yes | 1c | 1,507$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 1,407$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…4d96backed Yes | 10c | 1,398$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…b05fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,191$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…2871backed Yes | 4c | 1,148$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 1,114$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 6c | 1,097$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463c…52e0backed Yes | 4c | 1,006$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,005$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba9…0516backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a65…8d8fbacked Yes | 5c | 999.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 3c | 981.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe17d…9632backed Yes | 4c | 976.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65d6…b8fabacked Yes | 4c | 790.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x109d…9274backed Yes | 10c | 700$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47b…5a9ebacked Yes | 10c | 700$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9442…2338backed Yes | 5c | 699.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…6cbebacked Yes | 7c | 656.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcd…d377backed Yes | 6c | 640.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8de…a500backed Yes | 10c | 630$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe255…57c9backed Yes | 10c | 630$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6a…49aabacked Yes | 5c | 600$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 7c | 519.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2efb…bc63backed Yes | 8c | 477.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 2c | 467.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…7a45backed Yes | 5c | 462.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc755…be37backed Yes | 4c | 444.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658e…3ba6backed Yes | 7c | 413.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa57…86f5backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +406%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd103…dc55backed Yes | 5c | 398.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39ed…f90ebacked Yes | 11c | 393.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5d…4b49backed Yes | 6c | 376.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 6c | 368.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 39 | 0%0 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc137…2ca7backed Yes | 3c | 362.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 5c | 342.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…7842backed Yes | 7c | 288.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f0…9f5bbacked Yes | 5c | 284.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 5c | 274.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 5c | 271.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 268.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe81e…3640backed Yes | 8c | 259.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…fbbabacked Yes | 6c | 245.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 242.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 240.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc77…ace0backed Yes | 9c | 221.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 6c | 210.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed Yes | 5c | 203.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3753…89f5backed Yes | 10c | 202.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 7c | 139.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will It Was Just An Accident win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Sirāt win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Voice of Hind Rajab win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.