TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$270,948

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $270,948 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 595 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed No32c32,114$10,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,254.3714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.46per pick60cpaid-76%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes70c11,591$8,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,499.4529926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes68c9,758$6,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,121.9817751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes73c7,795$5,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,116.435612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-76%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf70f…3c97backed Yes68c6,936$4,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,230.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb0…f493backed Yes65c6,435$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,235.462100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes67c5,185$3,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,710.5848236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7063…eb48backed Yes73c4,136$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.61520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-72.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49fa…f904backed Yes69c4,005$2,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.37450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No31c3,714$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.471216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed No26c3,264$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.4128528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56eb…076abacked Yes67c3,000$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.972152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+38.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes75c2,991$2,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.781643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No35c2,814$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.9915641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes68c2,591$1,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.81637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed No31c2,589$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.817619.7%15 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes69c2,510$1,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.872857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes62c1,857$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.0213040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5481…554fbacked Yes76c1,836$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.451172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes64c1,563$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.943938.5%15 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x833c…f919backed Yes68c1,500$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes68c1,413$959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.718444%81 W · 103 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No30c1,396$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.89458.9%4 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-76.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed No32c1,396$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4461625%4 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7879…3653backed Yes77c1,300$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…92cabacked No36c1,217$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.121361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+32.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed No32c1,205$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.819238%35 W · 57 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No26c1,168$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.982227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-55.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32d0…6070backed No28c1,078$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.741136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes73c1,077$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.924250%21 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0e0…1acebacked Yes70c1,037$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.69450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-32.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No29c1,025$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.0223041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked No35c1,012$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.23336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes67c1,000$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.234247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Yes70c1,000$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.781275%9 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes65c999.97$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.991947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes66c999.97$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.992740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed No31c999.9$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.972040%8 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-29%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed No30c972.14$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.314663%29 W · 17 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+25%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4d58…34e0backed Yes65c972$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.21457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd98f…5d9abacked Yes71c967.02$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.1650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa22e…109cbacked Yes65c924$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.4650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0306…dcf6backed Yes67c902.53$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.261050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x223e…fc48backed Yes73c890.51$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+46.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9be1…cb56backed Yes67c870$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.12060%12 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+65%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes65c835.8$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.4223741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe80e…9211backed Yes68c816.94$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.871330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-52%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b30…29a4backed Yes62c801.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.091729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5be7…46eebacked Yes64c786$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.961040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid+29.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d43…920fbacked Yes68c769.5$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes66c759$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.161258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6813…39e6backed No34c758$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.72728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f14…026ebacked Yes67c746.95$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.95450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6452…30a1backed Yes67c746.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.861346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb95…d09ebacked Yes68c731.99$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7d5…4d28backed Yes69c724.64$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.64425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-63.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe73f…1989backed Yes69c724.64$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd049…ca58backed Yes63c719.01$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.42560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d91…89d8backed No35c715$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.251330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-59%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8383…75b7backed No36c682$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.52837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8de5…2b04backed Yes68c676.69$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.541060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…1598backed No34c669$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.462045%9 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x246f…0ab2backed Yes66c644$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.961258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes70c637.04$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.23633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-54.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36b8…ac4cbacked No35c621$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadbd…93f9backed Yes65c609$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.15955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked No32c600$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19240%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf26a…3a34backed Yes65c599.96$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72b2…5548backed Yes68c591.01$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.091741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Yes78c589$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.421020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7635…9ae0backed Yes64c587$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.321540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb555…83e5backed Yes67c576$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.08450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes63c571$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.7824634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd215…b4eebacked Yes67c570$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.1837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed No33c568.1$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.472142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b82…1712backed No34c531$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.541233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fc7…1a35backed No36c530$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.81553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42a0…4d9abacked Yes66c523$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.82450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03a0…e52abacked Yes77c521.14$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.142100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Yes68c520.81$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.872138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-46.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf42b…7577backed No34c517$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.782343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No32c511.53$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.0520841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f5…66a9backed Yes69c510.61$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.61425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-63.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb44…d3d2backed Yes72c500$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.05862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe132…ca8dbacked Yes74c500$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed No40c499.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x541c…c462backed Yes66c499.99$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No44c487$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.881650%8 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22c1…8cd6backed Yes63c470.67$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.141827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7546…2d93backed No33c464$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.121154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2f5…8e1ebacked No33c463$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.79425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-46.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes67c463$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.792544%11 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ee…2867backed Yes64c461$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2cd…adafbacked No32c446.88$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82b9…c6cebacked Yes68c444.43$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.431952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2934…9a60backed Yes66c442$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.281752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ef4…e2e9backed Yes68c441.06$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.471127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No32c438.5$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.318752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes60c427.99$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.217821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No31c424.53$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.53324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.