Asian League · resolved market
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-03-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6587e787d5553578c72390a6c9baa8acaecc7a74c8634fd0d14e49359db4fa6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,425 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 72c | 2,688$1,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.08 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 48c | 952.87$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 24c | 925.7$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.71 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 27c | 727.59$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.83 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 75c | 700$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 75c | 523.48$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.69 | 141 | 53.2%75 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 74c | 385.51$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 55c | 248.27$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.72 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 59c | 164.14$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 27c | 130.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 54c | 128.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Yes | 47c | 102.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 48c | 89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 68c | 85.01$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed No | 76c | 83.77$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e76…95cdbacked No | 77c | 72.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 55c | 66.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 54c | 62.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Yes | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed No | 53c | 52.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Yes | 48c | 49.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked No | 51c | 47.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 53c | 44.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 32c | 43.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Yes | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Yes | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Yes | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 77c | 37.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…afabbacked Yes | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 52c | 29.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 58c | 22.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 279 | 64.9%181 W · 98 L | +28.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed Yes | 49c | 21.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…e75fbacked No | 77c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-03-18?this page
- Will Nagoya Grampus vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima end in a draw?No won
- Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-03-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.