MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c4107e95550564b55913589b3565092f27ed657c8c95ed9dfea66b4f58aa89d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,616 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Houston Astros | 45c | 3,666$1,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,004.68 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 3,086$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621.31 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Houston Astros | 44c | 2,313$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.49 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 1,940$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.89 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 674.71$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.83 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 424.59$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.52 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Houston Astros | 50c | 367$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.5 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 359.64$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.22 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 263.54$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.4 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 262.39$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.82 | 119 | 61.3%73 W · 46 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Houston Astros | 46c | 258$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.65 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 211$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.72 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Houston Astros | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 22c | 187.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…c3a4backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 163.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 159.69$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.83 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Houston Astros | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Houston Astros | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Houston Astros | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 111$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Houston Astros | 44c | 108.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Houston Astros | 53c | 107$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Houston Astros | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +6.4wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Houston Astros | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Houston Astros | 42c | 98.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Houston Astros | 45c | 93.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Houston Astros | 45c | 89.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 403 | 51.4%207 W · 196 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Houston Astros | 44c | 84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Houston Astros | 48c | 63.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 158 | 40.5%64 W · 94 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Houston Astros | 43c | 63.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8353…01a8backed Houston Astros | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Houston Astros | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 76c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…afabbacked Houston Astros | 49c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Houston Astros | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked Houston Astros | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Houston Astros | 44c | 47.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 247 | 48.6%120 W · 127 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Houston Astros | 50c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Houston Astros | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Houston Astros | 45c | 39.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b45…d5f4backed Houston Astros | 43c | 38.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Houston Astros | 42c | 28.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Houston Astros | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Houston Astros | 68c | 15.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.