MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a2bea755e23a69c6c866a03d508c2b33503beec76c444db40534553ea8446e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,209 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked San Diego Padres | 56c | 3,935$2,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,722.12 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 3,489$1,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.31 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 1,145$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.67 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked San Diego Padres | 59c | 1,000$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.85 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce2…4b11backed Seattle Mariners | 8c | 800$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad06…b132backed Seattle Mariners | 7c | 760$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 589.5$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.21 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 574$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Seattle Mariners | 13c | 419.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 382.37$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.76 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…1bffbacked Seattle Mariners | 7c | 240$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 234.46$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.77 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Seattle Mariners | 13c | 191$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Seattle Mariners | 13c | 174$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Seattle Mariners | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Seattle Mariners | 14c | 158$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 150.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 146$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 111$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Seattle Mariners | 30c | 101.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…98f1backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e57…b822backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 88.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Seattle Mariners | 77c | 68.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…afabbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 60.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 54.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…f6afbacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 53.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 310 | 32.9%102 W · 208 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 50.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 45.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 26.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 851 | 35.8%305 W · 546 L | -23.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.