TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pistons vs. Magic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Pistons, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,800,123
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,085,045

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,800,123 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,431 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1bc0…4429backed Pistons65c292,717$191,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,491.0148343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Pistons65c240,967$157,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83,606.8543542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Magic34c106,282$36,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,135.9159347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Magic34c98,800$33,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,59211653.4%62 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Magic35c78,536$27,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,481.441,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic35c76,531$26,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,804.054,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Magic35c75,779$26,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,545.5692753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Pistons66c75,000$49,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,50011955.5%66 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Pistons65c69,975$45,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,339.141,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Magic35c65,364$22,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,877.430845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Pistons75c64,443$48,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,980.561,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Pistons66c60,000$39,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,315.712639.7%50 W · 76 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Magic55c60,000$33,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,999.9123147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Magic37c59,345$22,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,084.32,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Pistons45c46,667$21,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,666.6734456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Magic35c45,864$15,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,996.891,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe749…f660backed Magic34c43,048$14,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,636.482548%12 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Magic35c42,268$14,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,791.721,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcae4…e479backed Pistons47c34,503$16,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,423.53151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Magic34c30,400$10,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,3365251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49fa…f904backed Magic40c30,074$12,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,018.9917436.2%63 W · 111 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Pistons66c30,000$19,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,199.991,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Magic34c29,842$10,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,146.2531644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Pistons65c28,647$18,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,045.11,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Magic41c27,962$11,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,520.351,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Pistons65c25,041$16,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,713.171,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Magic34c25,000$8,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,5004447.7%21 W · 23 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+34.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Magic0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic48c24,727$11,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,834.985,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Magic22c23,080$5,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,189.031,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09e0…e546backed Magic35c22,363$7,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,827.053345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Pistons61c21,032$12,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,251.8227865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Magic29c19,830$5,669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,668.8793148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7312…df72backed Pistons63c19,804$12,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,303.5410523.8%25 W · 80 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Magic40c18,972$7,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,579.212,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Pistons63c16,577$10,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,122.2610952.3%57 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Pistons67c15,833$10,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,253.533,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Pistons66c15,000$9,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,10077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Magic54c15,000$8,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,10046342.5%197 W · 266 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a87…bce2backed Pistons66c14,959$9,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,079.21070%7 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc8…da92backed Magic39c13,613$5,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,253.632646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc4c…444cbacked Pistons62c13,000$8,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,939.976440.6%26 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Magic34c12,816$4,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,357.411,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0def…0674backed Magic1c12,200$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.52817.9%5 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Magic34c12,160$4,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,134.3924942.2%105 W · 144 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Pistons51c11,947$6,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,854.016841.2%28 W · 40 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Magic39c11,179$4,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,391.921,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Pistons66c11,056$7,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,766.032,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Pistons54c10,508$5,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,809.559857.1%56 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Magic35c10,259$3,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,602.8129250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Magic49c10,130$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00042348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Magic6c10,048$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.4480737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Magic35c10,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5002,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Pistons66c10,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,40023257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Magic34c10,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4002050%10 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Magic33c10,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,299.9446928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Magic35c9,999$3,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,532.9841832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Pistons65c9,707$6,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,397.462539.4%246 W · 379 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Pistons55c9,675$5,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,312.135650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Pistons57c8,844$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,843.9910158.4%59 W · 42 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Magic35c8,737$3,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,057.936860.3%41 W · 27 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Magic35c8,619$2,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,976.4786641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Magic35c8,571$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00026648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic44c8,281$3,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,636.024,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed Magic34c8,217$2,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,793.884953.1%26 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Magic55c8,111$4,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,446.896357.1%36 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x31a6…0dcfbacked Magic17c8,007$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.0817028.8%49 W · 121 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fd…f43ebacked Pistons66c7,442$4,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,530.4210746.7%50 W · 57 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Pistons65c7,385$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,584.624057.5%23 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x079e…8254backed Pistons46c7,300$3,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9425750.9%29 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Magic2c7,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29cc…3c29backed Magic35c6,997$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4603857.9%22 W · 16 L+4.4wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Pistons63c6,850$4,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,538.812,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pistons77c6,557$5,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.621,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8873…09fcbacked Magic56c6,210$3,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,480.377848.7%38 W · 40 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcecb…2c02backed Magic34c5,900$2,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,005.95966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb123…0a15backed Magic35c5,832$2,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0209944.4%44 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6480…fb82backed Pistons58c5,782$3,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,418.29650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Magic0c5,770$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.755213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa4c…737ebacked Pistons67c5,500$3,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,815250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x492e…2fb8backed Magic33c5,500$1,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,81520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Magic0c5,360$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2838…e27fbacked Magic34c5,324$1,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,81040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc29e…a2cabacked Pistons58c5,209$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,209.013148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c75…b299backed Magic35c5,186$1,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8154438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Pistons67c5,180$3,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,714.7210352.4%54 W · 49 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e41…a1c1backed Magic35c5,145$1,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800.86848.5%33 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Magic39c5,142$2,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,014.593,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Magic34c5,132$1,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,744.8135251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a24…4a1fbacked Magic34c5,011$1,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,703.583455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Pistons75c5,008$3,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,251.98036.3%29 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8000…3a21backed Pistons66c5,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,70025947.5%123 W · 136 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Pistons45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7501,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7cb…ea3ebacked Magic0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-54.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x30a3…1943backed Magic34c5,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7003050%15 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Magic34c5,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.9729748.1%143 W · 154 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Magic2c4,900$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983179.5%30 W · 287 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea21…99ddbacked Pistons64c4,800$3,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,727.987656.6%43 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pistons62c4,628$2,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,747.248,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0338…04b7backed Pistons49c4,500$2,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2953053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.