TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pistons vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Magicof Pistons, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,748
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,690

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,748 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe911…3d4ebacked Pistons25c1,793$455 inLost-$455.281,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic77c205.21$158 inWon+$46.845,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb11d…3706backed Pistons59c194.99$115 inLost-$115.041457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pistons14c116.51$17 inLost-$16.741,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Pistons59c84.26$50 inLost-$5026545.3%120 W · 145 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb975…e19abacked Pistons51c78.43$40 inLost-$401764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+46.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x67b1…63ecbacked Pistons52c78.26$41 inLost-$419334.4%32 W · 61 L-11.4wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4f2c…9d16backed Pistons50c66$33 inLost-$331827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef93…9f0dbacked Magic41c51.07$21 inWon+$30.131650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc63d…a59bbacked Pistons23c50$12 inLost-$11.740%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xadf6…4eaabacked Magic41c49.13$20 inWon+$28.991546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb0…c9f8backed Magic41c48.18$20 inWon+$28.431752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfc4…3b29backed Magic41c46.61$19 inWon+$27.51553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x760b…6dc8backed Magic49c44.06$22 inWon+$22.473053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b7f…a8e5backed Magic47c21.87$10 inWon+$11.5911732.5%38 W · 79 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.