TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 222.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,308
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,192

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,308 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1e29…9e66backed Over55c2,380$1,309 inLost-$1,308.9850241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Under47c791$372 inWon+$419.2358347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Under45c666.67$300 inWon+$366.6727746.6%129 W · 148 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under45c629.98$284 inWon+$346.324,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c4…fe40backed Under72c500$358 inWon+$142.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick44cpaid-84.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Over38c351.55$134 inLost-$134.3819435.1%68 W · 126 L-13.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under45c351$158 inWon+$193.052,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over29c344.8$101 inLost-$100.848,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under45c311.04$140 inWon+$170.6445646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Under49c306.12$150 inWon+$156.1234854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under45c227.68$102 inWon+$1263,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over52c186.38$98 inLost-$97.592,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e66…e1b2backed Under47c184.14$86 inWon+$98.2911850%59 W · 59 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29de…072cbacked Over55c181.82$100 inLost-$10016862.5%105 W · 63 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under45c156$70 inWon+$85.856547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Over28c133.81$37 inLost-$37.4518438.6%71 W · 113 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8790…0795backed Under46c105.69$49 inWon+$57.071361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+20.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Under45c100$45 inWon+$5522453.1%119 W · 105 L+29.4wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+29.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over53c85.9$46 inLost-$45.531,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Over33c79.28$26 inLost-$26.3988057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over55c75.21$41 inLost-$41.371,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under45c75$34 inWon+$41.2578648.7%383 W · 403 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over38c70.15$27 inLost-$26.7190357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over36c68.94$25 inLost-$24.823,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over32c45$14 inLost-$14.465630.2%198 W · 458 L-86.7wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xabbf…0758backed Over38c36.55$14 inLost-$13.7839047.7%186 W · 204 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16d2…a07abacked Over54c36.47$20 inLost-$19.691030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-47.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ed8…6b7fbacked Over54c35.28$19 inLost-$19.051764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5955…f86ebacked Over54c34.14$18 inLost-$18.441258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4eb…05b5backed Under44c28.03$12 inWon+$15.75054%27 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under44c26.82$12 inWon+$14.914,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Over53c25$13 inLost-$13.2546447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e3…c09fbacked Over54c24.59$13 inLost-$13.196953.6%37 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x117d…6542backed Over55c20$11 inLost-$1156454.3%306 W · 258 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.