NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58a8843f68ad66235fa129c86581fa7114a256e5f89ca518b84708c632cbdbd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Pistons, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Magic | 57c | 3,097$1,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,757.54 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Pistons | 45c | 2,811$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,546.89 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Magic | 55c | 1,835$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.69 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Pistons | 43c | 1,265$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.22 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pistons | 41c | 895.37$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pistons | 43c | 702.17$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.24 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Magic | 57c | 600.01$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Pistons | 40c | 550.47$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.02 | 184 | 38.6%71 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Magic | 53c | 450.48$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.76 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Pistons | 44c | 340.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.27 | 277 | 46.6%129 W · 148 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Pistons | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 292 | 43.8%128 W · 164 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Magic | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Magic | 55c | 274.11$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.76 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Pistons | 44c | 270.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.79 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Magic | 69c | 233.97$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.1 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…570cbacked Magic | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pistons | 44c | 170.11$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.11 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Pistons | 44c | 163.74$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.69 | 765 | 52.9%405 W · 360 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Magic | 57c | 140.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Magic | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Pistons | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Pistons | 51c | 123.23$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pistons | 59c | 122$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Magic | 57c | 119.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | -13.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Magic | 55c | 116.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Pistons | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Magic | 56c | 112.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…2687backed Pistons | 45c | 111.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Magic | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 250 | 56.8%142 W · 108 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…7d50backed Magic | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pistons | 44c | 93.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Pistons | 43c | 78.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Pistons | 47c | 67.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Pistons | 46c | 54.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 534 | 53.4%285 W · 249 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Magic | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 332 | 49.7%165 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Magic | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ba…f30dbacked Magic | 55c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6de8backed Pistons | 47c | 39.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 84 | 60.7%51 W · 33 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Magic | 59c | 36.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Pistons | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Magic | 36c | 29.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 122 | 27%33 W · 89 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Pistons | 44c | 28.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Pistons | 54c | 27.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Magic | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 251 | 50.6%127 W · 124 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea05…6e25backed Magic | 55c | 23.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Pistons | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Magic | 57c | 18.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…be2dbacked Magic | 76c | 16.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Magic | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f61…3eb5backed Magic | 73c | 15.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)this page
- Anthony Black: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Anthony Black: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Anthony Black: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Pistons vs. MagicPistons won
- Pistons vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Pistons vs. Magic: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 212.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 213.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 215.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 216.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 217.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 220.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 221.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 222.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 223.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 224.5Under won
- Ron Holland II: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-1.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Pistons won
- Tristan da Silva: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.