NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Pistons: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd06901294cd04257934a7ef0af7705b74fc29d369099c9e607ab285ed929ed16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Warriors, Pistons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,965 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf65b…675cbacked Warriors | 42c | 199.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pistons | 17c | 162.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.98 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Warriors | 40c | 99.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 362 | 48.1%174 W · 188 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Warriors | 37c | 90.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…965dbacked Pistons | 63c | 85.71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Pistons | 59c | 49.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Pistons | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…4824backed Pistons | 70c | 43.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Pistons | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…afabbacked Pistons | 29c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bba…6596backed Pistons | 58c | 34.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…bcabbacked Pistons | 58c | 34.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Pistons: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Pistons won
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Pistons won
- Caris LeVert: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Caris LeVert: Points O/U 8.5No won
- De'Anthony Melton: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Gui Santos: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
- Quinten Post: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Pistons won
- Warriors vs. PistonsPistons won
- Warriors vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 104.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Pistons: O/U 217.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.