TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Pistons, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$787,548

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $787,548 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 421 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Warriors52c146,141$75,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,481.211,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Pistons47c121,013$56,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,136.8772648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Warriors53c105,533$55,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,545.2223147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d6…be17backed Pistons50c100,813$50,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,813.0210448.1%50 W · 54 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa729…9326backed Pistons49c70,890$34,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,153.854949%24 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Pistons48c69,124$33,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,089.361,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Pistons47c30,978$14,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,294.881,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Warriors51c24,715$12,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,604.314,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd916…fdcabacked Warriors51c19,786$10,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,090.861060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac0b…d4c4backed Pistons49c19,559$9,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,975.095100%5 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+105.7%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xad44…5e25backed Warriors51c17,982$9,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,170.82580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+64.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa522…deb9backed Pistons49c17,098$8,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,719.98580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+75.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7fe0…8b36backed Warriors51c13,600$6,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,936580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+75.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x08f1…8731backed Warriors51c13,566$6,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,918.66560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd7…ec5bbacked Warriors51c12,839$6,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,547.89560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6b3…55c3backed Warriors51c12,753$6,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,504.03560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+34.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb906…bf75backed Warriors51c12,043$6,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,141.93862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+28.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x13cc…b1ddbacked Pistons49c11,577$5,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,904.274100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+115.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbda7…838abacked Pistons49c10,500$5,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,3555100%5 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x45cb…6d23backed Warriors51c10,216$5,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,210.16580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+72.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf515…8460backed Warriors51c10,099$5,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,150.49666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+37.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Warriors53c10,001$5,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,300.532,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f25…2f58backed Warriors51c9,875$5,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,036.25580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+70.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7ab…d7ddbacked Pistons49c9,826$4,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,011.26666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+45.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed Warriors56c9,267$5,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,190.7811241.1%46 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfe1…6657backed Pistons49c8,839$4,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,507.89785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.39per pick47cpaid+81.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Warriors55c8,552$4,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,703.5931644.6%141 W · 175 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd17a…55febacked Warriors51c8,437$4,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,302.87560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Warriors51c7,998$4,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,079.1138253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f65…98e9backed Pistons49c7,808$3,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,982.08666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+40.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Warriors55c7,147$3,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,93124942.2%105 W · 144 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45c8…f681backed Pistons49c6,953$3,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,546.035100%5 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pistons46c6,668$3,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,568.569,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Pistons49c6,143$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,143.0549246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Warriors52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1201,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaaf…6c3dbacked Pistons49c5,994$2,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,056.941070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae6b…8e1cbacked Warriors51c5,606$2,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,859.06875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+55.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ee4…c0b1backed Warriors51c5,335$2,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,720.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+50%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c36…7ce7backed Warriors51c5,283$2,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,694.33757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe04…4517backed Pistons49c5,273$2,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,689.23560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa54b…09c2backed Warriors51c5,270$2,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,687.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x069c…2432backed Pistons49c5,010$2,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,555.1785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.39per pick47cpaid+82.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x274c…fd4fbacked Pistons49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x613e…0bd3backed Warriors51c4,965$2,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,532.15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ba7…a363backed Pistons49c4,962$2,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,530.62666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+41%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x219e…971ebacked Warriors51c4,916$2,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,507.16250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Pistons48c4,882$2,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,539.763,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3445…0db3backed Pistons49c4,863$2,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,480.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+42.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b2…a3b7backed Pistons49c4,844$2,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,470.44560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7302…d505backed Pistons49c4,834$2,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,465.34450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc172…35f2backed Warriors51c4,788$2,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,441.88250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7a3…b13dbacked Pistons49c4,787$2,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,441.37475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+53.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1085…1f01backed Warriors51c4,782$2,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,438.82250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6844…4afdbacked Pistons49c4,779$2,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,437.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Warriors52c4,762$2,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,493.172,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26af…b26ebacked Pistons49c4,738$2,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,416.38450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb249…4151backed Pistons49c4,692$2,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,392.92475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+52.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb044…8c94backed Pistons49c4,662$2,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,377.62683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+66.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f29…0f0fbacked Warriors51c4,661$2,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,377.11250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5611…7888backed Warriors51c4,608$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,350.08250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05df…7500backed Warriors51c4,600$2,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,346250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eb1…fea4backed Warriors51c4,596$2,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,343.96333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc6…b8f0backed Warriors51c4,594$2,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,342.94450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa921…4d01backed Warriors51c4,572$2,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,331.72250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ae6…035abacked Warriors51c4,566$2,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,328.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92cd…bb84backed Warriors51c4,509$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.59250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3801…547fbacked Warriors51c4,509$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.59250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc523…e9e5backed Warriors51c4,486$2,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,287.86250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe950…c27ebacked Warriors51c4,486$2,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,287.86966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+37.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd80f…3a5abacked Warriors51c4,482$2,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,285.82250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf54e…8efdbacked Warriors51c4,426$2,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,257.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfc0…e2b8backed Warriors51c4,419$2,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,253.69333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5974…ffeabacked Warriors51c4,408$2,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,248.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x444e…c3cfbacked Warriors51c4,392$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,239.92250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Warriors53c4,391$2,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,314.874,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0b3…1eebbacked Warriors51c4,380$2,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,233.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea0…06febacked Warriors51c4,313$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.63250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1734…b77abacked Pistons49c4,298$2,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,191.98966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+24.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4da7…5eaebacked Warriors51c4,292$2,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,188.92250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed9…5cb4backed Pistons49c4,278$2,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,181.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb331…e281backed Warriors51c4,265$2,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,175.15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2df2…a07cbacked Warriors51c4,186$2,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,134.86250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de5…e8bbbacked Pistons46c4,150$1,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,24113154.2%71 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa13d…91e1backed Warriors51c4,129$2,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,105.79250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae60…5c33backed Pistons49c4,098$2,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,089.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf5a…5a78backed Warriors51c4,067$2,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,074.17250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5f5…12c2backed Warriors51c4,043$2,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,061.93250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd684…ac07backed Pistons49c4,014$1,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,047.14475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+48.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c9d…f301backed Warriors51c3,945$2,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,011.95250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Warriors53c3,910$2,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,072.314245.8%65 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdf1…6eebbacked Pistons49c3,858$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,967.58666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+43.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c6f…2c83backed Warriors51c3,857$1,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,967.07250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de0…0b10backed Warriors51c3,835$1,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,955.85250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Warriors53c3,774$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Warriors52c3,429$1,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,776.173,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ebf…3b02backed Warriors53c3,387$1,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,795.21040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Pistons48c2,889$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,516.516,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x135f…9ad4backed Pistons49c2,769$1,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,412.19475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+58.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f0f…c117backed Pistons49c2,729$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,391.79771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+49.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc146…6f38backed Pistons49c2,723$1,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,388.73450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.