Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Alverca win on 2026-03-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x032f65954dee6671246a798f782894315adc033f0242ab50feb5032eaac05622
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,151 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 25c | 15,457$3,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,853.72 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 19c | 3,226$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.85 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 1,754$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.65 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 16c | 811.94$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.91 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191a…b47dbacked Yes | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Yes | 26c | 388.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 368.89$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.76 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed No | 80c | 350$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 6c | 299.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea1…f17ebacked Yes | 6c | 299.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 4cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 17c | 251.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…c6b9backed Yes | 7c | 227.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 20c | 197.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 11c | 154.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 17c | 149.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…afabbacked Yes | 11c | 141.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4364backed Yes | 20c | 133$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 70.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 437 | 21.7%95 W · 342 L | -49.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0d…b02fbacked Yes | 17c | 67.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5d…e3f4backed Yes | 18c | 62.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -78%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Yes | 21c | 61.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Yes | 27c | 56.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 75c | 33.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 341 | 58.9%201 W · 140 L | +25.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed No | 75c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +10.0wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc62e…108dbacked No | 74c | 18.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 54cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…ade4backed No | 75c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Alverca win on 2026-03-14?this page
- Will Gil Vicente FC vs. FC Alverca end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-03-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.