South American Leagues · resolved market
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-03-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10f8f49be18d0aaf96543602efce86edd74a1bd673ca82f9bcdc130fc1e81409
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,830 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 24c | 5,038$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.65 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 26c | 3,022$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,227.02 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 71c | 1,863$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.42 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 78c | 1,647$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.72 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked No | 66c | 1,500$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 20c | 629.05$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.21 | 109 | 22%24 W · 85 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 26c | 522.58$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 34c | 502.96$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.73 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 37c | 497.52$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.68 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 496.33$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.13 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked Yes | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b3…dcafbacked Yes | 32c | 338.96$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.65 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Yes | 13c | 291.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 32c | 290.34$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.68 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 34c | 212.93$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed No | 69c | 177.66$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked Yes | 38c | 124.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 65c | 124.14$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 117.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Yes | 41c | 76.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 32c | 68.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 21c | 59.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 14.5%20 W · 118 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3a…b960backed Yes | 76c | 54.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…526abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 25c | 48.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 35c | 39.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…a0f5backed Yes | 39c | 38.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d38…71efbacked Yes | 31c | 37.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Yes | 35c | 35.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…afabbacked Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…f266backed Yes | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e7…e57fbacked No | 65c | 22.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 64c | 20.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b22…03fabacked No | 71c | 15.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-03-15?this page
- Will CA Tigre vs. AA Argentinos Juniors end in a draw?Yes won
- Will CA Tigre win on 2026-03-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.