Asian League · resolved market
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87d86acd59205c1286c60ecd860d389974dae0b077f08d30a7c21697a0559267
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,254 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 49c | 5,686$2,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,920.94 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 47c | 4,335$2,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,024.06 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 56c | 1,119$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.39 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…720fbacked No | 45c | 1,066$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 20c | 1,027$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.49 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 57c | 912.87$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.35 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 28c | 326.11$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.27 | 623 | 49.1%306 W · 317 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 68c | 310.96$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.45 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b1…69d2backed No | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 20c | 196.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 794 | 35.1%279 W · 515 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Yes | 61c | 156.29$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.05 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 935 | 35.2%329 W · 606 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 61c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Yes | 41c | 68.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…0905backed No | 44c | 61.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 34c | 53.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f9…ab4ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 28c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ad…9d51backed Yes | 41c | 48.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 41c | 40.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 45c | 39.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 141 | 53.2%75 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked No | 55c | 36.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…afabbacked Yes | 32c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a8…078dbacked Yes | 67c | 17.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 80c | 12.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.55 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
- Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-03-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.