Asian League · resolved market
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-03-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fd940c218e2d3d46317e4dfdd859ed086c71fe7df143bcb03563a0e42f05b59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,760 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 6,241$4,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414.25 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 19c | 4,638$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.57 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 12c | 1,593$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.97 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Yes | 30c | 1,493$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.71 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 30c | 1,063$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.26 | 623 | 49.1%306 W · 317 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 30c | 999.34$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.75 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0556…132abacked Yes | 31c | 399.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 79c | 362.91$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 70c | 208.02$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 225 | 55.1%124 W · 101 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 70c | 197.28$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 14c | 180$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -11.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 79c | 157.9$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfad…af3fbacked Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 19c | 109.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 29c | 104$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a54…4e11backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Yes | 24c | 94.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 25c | 88.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 27c | 81.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 148 | 40.5%60 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…bd37backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Yes | 30c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 79c | 55.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 141 | 53.2%75 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e9…910bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1d…8986backed No | 72c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…3626backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…700bbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 21.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-03-21?this page
- Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.