TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-15.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mavericksof Thunder, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$252,019
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$256,502

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,019 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Mavericks51c72,385$36,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,519.1332653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Mavericks47c70,463$33,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,263.4654539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Thunder53c60,586$32,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,110.7823147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Mavericks47c26,823$12,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,167.812,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde18…83bcbacked Thunder54c18,649$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0009250%46 W · 46 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Thunder52c11,520$5,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,990.47638.2%29 W · 47 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Thunder50c11,227$5,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,63670246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Mavericks46c10,828$5,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,799.471,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Thunder49c9,984$4,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,892.166860.3%41 W · 27 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Mavericks48c7,406$3,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,851.251,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Thunder52c6,000$3,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,14512245.1%55 W · 67 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Thunder55c5,455$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00029347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder50c5,353$2,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,658.294,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7af9…b408backed Thunder49c5,031$2,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4656657.6%38 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mavericks48c4,461$2,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,334.44,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Thunder49c4,384$2,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,14825452.8%134 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Thunder53c4,273$2,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,264.9340350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Mavericks49c4,092$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,091.9320945.5%95 W · 114 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Thunder53c4,000$2,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.351,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Thunder52c3,908$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,015.6572241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0d6…7832backed Thunder49c3,665$1,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,795.85250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Thunder49c3,548$1,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,738.2924744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Thunder51c3,033$1,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,546.8345850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked Thunder49c2,861$1,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,401.917550.9%89 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed8f…5aa7backed Thunder49c2,857$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.8717144.4%76 W · 95 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Thunder49c2,809$1,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,376.232150.8%163 W · 158 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder50c2,686$1,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.838,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Thunder8c2,284$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.51,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Thunder49c2,224$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.7658347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac1…a0f2backed Thunder50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011051.8%57 W · 53 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Thunder53c1,909$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.9452460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6f8…fe4dbacked Thunder51c1,901$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.51338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb75…aaf9backed Thunder54c1,900$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0267759.7%46 W · 31 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x128f…db9dbacked Thunder54c1,852$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020651.5%106 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Mavericks47c1,843$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.582,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder50c1,695$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.224,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Thunder53c1,600$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84841553.3%221 W · 194 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Thunder49c1,429$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70037747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Thunder52c1,296$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.523,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Mavericks47c1,277$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.812,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Thunder49c1,266$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.252,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Thunder49c1,184$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.161,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf312…184dbacked Mavericks49c1,100$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5612040%8 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Thunder59c1,036$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.8840243.8%176 W · 226 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Thunder49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7522143%95 W · 126 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Mavericks48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52062948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Thunder53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53048957.5%281 W · 208 L+2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Thunder50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050954.8%279 W · 230 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6292…d254backed Thunder50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020846.6%97 W · 111 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Thunder52c954.72$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50090957.6%524 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Mavericks44c871.94$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.282,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Thunder53c849.06$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4508751.7%45 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Thunder49c834.69$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.22,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Mavericks49c814.75$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.623,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72ba…fa25backed Mavericks49c799$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.491650%8 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Mavericks44c720.88$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.6328537.9%108 W · 177 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks47c681.64$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.735,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72bc…b24ebacked Thunder49c640$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.67052.9%37 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Mavericks50c600.65$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.651,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Thunder53c566.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Thunder58c564$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.5695848.7%467 W · 491 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfaa…3858backed Thunder53c543.4$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2883253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Thunder52c541.25$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.273,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9698…2504backed Thunder53c537.74$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2853946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58f…51d6backed Thunder60c519.5$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31027248.5%132 W · 140 L+11.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24d4…4e1dbacked Thunder49c510.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2508450%42 W · 42 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Thunder57c500$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28514251.4%73 W · 69 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Thunder53c499.97$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.6350653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Mavericks45c489.9$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.453,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Thunder49c489.8$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24087453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Mavericks48c461.53$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2401,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Mavericks47c403$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.591,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Thunder60c400$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24027357.1%156 W · 117 L+0.9wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Thunder53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21266645.9%306 W · 360 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Mavericks49c398.99$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.565,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Thunder54c378.54$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.989853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7be1…200ebacked Thunder53c377$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8136449.7%181 W · 183 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Thunder49c315.08$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.3962347.5%296 W · 327 L-17.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Thunder49c306.12$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Thunder49c282.45$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.419445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Thunder66c281.82$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.231,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Mavericks50c272.38$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.2354351.6%280 W · 263 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Thunder53c253.26$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2352242.7%223 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Mavericks40c244.24$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.781,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Mavericks51c235.44$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.3791148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51ce…44c1backed Mavericks47c223$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.1911451.8%59 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Thunder52c222$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.4447748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Thunder51c218.12$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.2429149.5%144 W · 147 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder49c213$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.376,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Mavericks46c212.78$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.93,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Mavericks52c211.54$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5439552.2%206 W · 189 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Mavericks51c206.48$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.5662844.9%282 W · 346 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Mavericks51c200.01$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8989050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc0e6…7358backed Thunder54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10814046.4%65 W · 75 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Thunder48c199.99$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9695548.5%463 W · 492 L-3.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Thunder53c198$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.941,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dcc…031ebacked Mavericks50c194.34$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.2823349.4%115 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ce…6509backed Mavericks52c193.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.4628046.8%131 W · 149 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Thunder53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10069049.4%341 W · 349 L-30.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x880e…54edbacked Thunder54c185.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007458.1%43 W · 31 L+8.5wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+24.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.