NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-17.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb135fef89b32add02f85e63c7661fa8aee3abd9b71722f2a5f63dbc43e74c859
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Thunder, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $429,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $435,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $429,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Thunder | 46c | 348,987$160,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160,538.17 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Mavericks | 54c | 333,038$179,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153,197.32 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Thunder | 46c | 52,420$24,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,089.06 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Mavericks | 54c | 49,464$26,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,753.64 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Mavericks | 54c | 13,882$7,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,385.91 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4899…c212backed Mavericks | 50c | 6,037$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,037.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Thunder | 46c | 5,052$2,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,323.34 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Thunder | 50c | 3,643$1,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,823.57 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Mavericks | 55c | 3,056$1,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375.2 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb44f…8c20backed Mavericks | 55c | 2,636$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,186.36 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder | 51c | 2,043$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.81 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Mavericks | 55c | 1,216$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.59 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e8bbbacked Thunder | 12c | 900$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Mavericks | 54c | 700.07$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.03 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Mavericks | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 493 | 45.2%223 W · 270 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Mavericks | 54c | 555.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.55 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder | 44c | 538.87$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.1 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Mavericks | 56c | 324.03$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.03 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Thunder | 45c | 283.51$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.77 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0439…3f80backed Mavericks | 55c | 269.95$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.48 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Thunder | 53c | 266.55$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.72 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Mavericks | 54c | 243.98$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.28 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Mavericks | 53c | 237.62$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.68 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Thunder | 48c | 234.22$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.26 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Mavericks | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 448 | 21.4%96 W · 352 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8c…686fbacked Thunder | 38c | 199.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 244 | 9.4%23 W · 221 L | -27.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…dedebacked Mavericks | 55c | 189.81$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.42 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453f…6b3bbacked Mavericks | 56c | 181.81$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Mavericks | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 164 | 50%82 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Mavericks | 48c | 177.84$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.14 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Thunder | 69c | 159.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Mavericks | 56c | 143.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 145 | 57.9%84 W · 61 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Thunder | 46c | 108.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 534 | 53.4%285 W · 249 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…3896backed Mavericks | 56c | 89.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked Mavericks | 56c | 87.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 233 | 49.4%115 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Mavericks | 37c | 86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 24c | 75.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0878…1374backed Mavericks | 44c | 68.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks | 50c | 63.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…c91abacked Mavericks | 60c | 60.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Thunder | 55c | 54.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 130 | 37.7%49 W · 81 L | -14.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa886…822bbacked Mavericks | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Mavericks | 57c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Thunder | 44c | 49.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…7d4dbacked Mavericks | 55c | 47.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 176 | 50%88 W · 88 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Mavericks | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Thunder | 45c | 42.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b9…5822backed Mavericks | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0568…d5a7backed Thunder | 47c | 39.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c12…7cb6backed Thunder | 46c | 39.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed Mavericks | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Mavericks | 63c | 34.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b7…be96backed Mavericks | 55c | 33.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Thunder | 45c | 33.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…6562backed Mavericks | 56c | 28.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 148 | 47.3%70 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Mavericks | 40c | 25.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d69…01aebacked Thunder | 46c | 25.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b5…8b54backed Thunder | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…5d9bbacked Mavericks | 55c | 24.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4eb…05b5backed Mavericks | 54c | 22.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…ab1ebacked Mavericks | 56c | 21.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +55%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d3…4f9cbacked Mavericks | 56c | 20.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Thunder | 54c | 19.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)this page
- Cason Wallace: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Mavericks won
- Thunder vs. MavericksThunder won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.