TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,671
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,147

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,671 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa084…bb99backed Under44c10,000$4,400 inWon+$5,6002445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Over52c6,486$3,373 inLost-$3,372.711,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Over56c3,938$2,205 inLost-$2,205.4726753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under48c3,340$1,601 inWon+$1,738.974,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over56c2,677$1,486 inLost-$1,485.783,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2639…a9b6backed Over56c809.91$450 inLost-$45024147.7%115 W · 126 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under46c672.05$309 inWon+$363.315,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7100…b346backed Over58c638.72$370 inLost-$370.3720147.8%96 W · 105 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over56c627$351 inLost-$351.126,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under57c508.02$289 inWon+$219.338,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under48c417$200 inWon+$216.841,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Over52c400$208 inLost-$20816148.4%78 W · 83 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under48c400$192 inWon+$2081,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Under48c250$120 inWon+$13052146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Over52c232.05$120 inLost-$119.6791148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over56c220.38$122 inLost-$122.352,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cc…3ddebacked Under49c214.29$105 inWon+$109.291631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over52c134$70 inLost-$69.682,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Under48c125$60 inWon+$6543447.5%206 W · 228 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Under49c112.87$55 inWon+$57.5643543.4%189 W · 246 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe9…987ebacked Under48c104.17$50 inWon+$54.173622.2%8 W · 28 L-8.3wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-55.7%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Under45c100$45 inWon+$5539435.3%139 W · 255 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under48c99$48 inWon+$51.481,63448.1%786 W · 848 L+5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under44c86.88$38 inWon+$48.645,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95fe…3896backed Over60c83.33$50 inLost-$5017046.5%79 W · 91 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Under45c69.02$31 inWon+$37.9614533.1%48 W · 97 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under42c67.87$29 inWon+$39.114,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfda…20c0backed Over60c58.33$35 inLost-$351163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35b8…898abacked Over55c54.55$30 inLost-$308754%47 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Under43c53.23$23 inWon+$30.3450841.7%212 W · 296 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa00e…73fabacked Over55c40$22 inLost-$2216951.5%87 W · 82 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3176…20d4backed Under46c22$10 inWon+$11.884665.2%30 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x640d…3168backed Over58c20.69$12 inLost-$123452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca4e…a5dabacked Over59c17.97$11 inLost-$10.6520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-57.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.