NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3250c8d9d248f7a9016a1a7e2c6369ae9c81f2619dbc375771392fcd8fd2b1fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 54c | 28,654$15,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,376.09 | 267 | 53.2%142 W · 125 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 10,496$4,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,578.57 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 6,438$2,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,473.4 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ea…bb01backed Under | 49c | 4,700$2,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,397 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 46c | 4,093$1,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,204.05 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 46c | 2,858$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.48 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 2,492$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.71 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 51c | 2,353$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 266 | 37.2%99 W · 167 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…74e9backed Under | 49c | 1,906$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.49 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6529backed Under | 50c | 1,605$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.37 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 55c | 1,284$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 463 | 46.4%215 W · 248 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 47c | 1,227$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.06 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…cec3backed Over | 51c | 1,166$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 154 | 50.6%78 W · 76 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 50c | 964.04$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.02 | 270 | 52.6%142 W · 128 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…9ef3backed Over | 50c | 964.04$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.02 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 50c | 903.64$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.82 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Under | 50c | 900$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 221 | 43%95 W · 126 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Over | 53c | 852$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.56 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167d…cf09backed Over | 64c | 760.04$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 45c | 675.48$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.61 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 46c | 651$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.54 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…6a15backed Over | 53c | 617$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.01 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 53c | 610.01$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.94 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 35c | 466.54$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.39 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…2579backed Under | 58c | 390.14$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.39 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 52c | 386.78$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.77 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 326.25$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.84 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Over | 31c | 256.8$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 49c | 251.75$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 306 | 41.8%128 W · 178 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 240.64$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…905bbacked Over | 56c | 194.19$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 162.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.26 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaac…ff10backed Under | 66c | 152.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 49c | 136.45$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…906bbacked Under | 70c | 122.17$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 35c | 101.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 216 | 37.5%81 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 51c | 97.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 49c | 86.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 50c | 83.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 49c | 83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed Over | 52c | 76.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 56c | 74.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e7…a322backed Under | 70c | 71.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 46c | 61.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Over | 32c | 57.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 122 | 27%33 W · 89 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 45c | 50.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Over | 52c | 49.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 214 | 59.3%127 W · 87 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 529 | 51.2%271 W · 258 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 46c | 45.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 370 | 37.3%138 W · 232 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Over | 32c | 39.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…3acebacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…d255backed Under | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d5…95c1backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4eb…05b5backed Over | 51c | 27.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e3…c09fbacked Over | 52c | 21.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b3…1392backed Under | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 49c | 20.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 215 | 53.5%115 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5this page
- Cason Wallace: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Mavericks won
- Thunder vs. MavericksThunder won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.