NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8304118749eb387eb4a3cbbbac07b82a67e29488b5ad8840f52bd6e4735820df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 0c | 10,312$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Over | 58c | 1,714$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.03 | 348 | 55.2%192 W · 156 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 45c | 910$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.5 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Under | 40c | 479.92$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.47 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 64c | 470.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 463 | 46.4%215 W · 248 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 40c | 335.55$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.81 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Over | 17c | 175.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 286 | 16.4%47 W · 239 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 36c | 110.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 44c | 102.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 44c | 93.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…be2dbacked Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 38c | 77.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Under | 41c | 59.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b2…5f92backed Under | 52c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 43.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3187…896dbacked Under | 53c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 47c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbb…727fbacked Under | 39c | 38.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 61c | 38.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 33c | 38.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 38c | 38.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 52c | 36.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 373 | 44.2%165 W · 208 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc03a…a7bdbacked Over | 64c | 34.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f1…5fd6backed Over | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 45c | 22.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5this page
- Cason Wallace: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Mavericks won
- Thunder vs. MavericksThunder won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.