NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x870f0fcf4028751895e3915074167434b2497f2fdb508b2ff7c99bef7dcec3a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Over | 51c | 1,861$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.15 | 270 | 52.6%142 W · 128 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Over | 55c | 1,394$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.95 | 220 | 55%121 W · 99 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb568…14d4backed Under | 45c | 915$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.25 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -20.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 52c | 768.07$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.17 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 692.48$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.31 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 47c | 620.77$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.11 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 47c | 499.91$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.43 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 49c | 489.81$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.8 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 46c | 305.07$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.27 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9f0abacked Under | 48c | 249.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 49c | 225.97$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.21 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Over | 56c | 207.35$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.36 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 44c | 160$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 50c | 125$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 428 | 53%227 W · 201 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 53c | 99.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 45c | 94.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Under | 49c | 84.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 244 | 28.7%70 W · 174 L | -22.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 57c | 78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 76.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e3…c09fbacked Over | 57c | 69.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 53.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 67c | 52.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 52c | 52.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 48c | 51.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 38.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 373 | 44.2%165 W · 208 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 52c | 34.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 270 | 50%135 W · 135 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 53c | 29.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5this page
- Cason Wallace: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Mavericks won
- Thunder vs. MavericksThunder won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.