Asian League · resolved market
Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-03-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3222e500268b41f31f4e1de6a8a5d1da25c22f0bddc2205a1a1684e4025ff7e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,912 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 33c | 435.78$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.68 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Yes | 31c | 306.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.17 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 35c | 238.29$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 27c | 176.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 77c | 139$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 307 | 50.8%156 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 56c | 106.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Yes | 29c | 103.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 72c | 97.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 60c | 87.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 65c | 85.46$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 31c | 71.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 34c | 67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 69c | 56.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…afabbacked Yes | 30c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 42c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 133 | 49.6%66 W · 67 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 69c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 32.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 52c | 26.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 279 | 64.9%181 W · 98 L | +28.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 77c | 25.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-03-18?this page
- Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-03-18?No won
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Kashiwa Reysol end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.