TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Sabres vs. Golden Knights

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sabresof Sabres, Golden Knights
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$944,787

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $944,787 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 621 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Golden Knights56c220,000$123,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123,199.9915054.7%82 W · 68 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Sabres44c197,048$87,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109,416.2867051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Golden Knights55c89,826$49,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,404.379350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Golden Knights55c63,251$34,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,705.4748545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Sabres44c51,930$23,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,902.148549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Golden Knights55c41,964$23,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,247.8310050%50 W · 50 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Sabres45c39,925$17,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,958.7940351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sabres44c39,063$17,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,808.711,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Golden Knights30c21,778$6,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,572.1732744%144 W · 183 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Golden Knights55c19,419$10,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,680.2547951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Sabres45c19,000$8,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,4601,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Golden Knights55c17,564$9,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,657.8859450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Golden Knights54c12,990$7,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,044.411,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed Sabres45c11,040$4,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,0722564%16 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Sabres46c10,870$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,869.5732151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Sabres47c10,461$4,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,528.2236648.6%178 W · 188 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Golden Knights54c10,325$5,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,546.6614954.4%81 W · 68 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Sabres45c10,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,50026058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Sabres44c10,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,60032946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Sabres45c9,636$4,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,333.4516843.5%73 W · 95 L-14.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Golden Knights54c9,500$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.9760249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Golden Knights54c9,500$5,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,109.9443548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f92…1862backed Golden Knights53c9,456$5,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,011.522123.8%5 W · 16 L-6.6wins-0.31per pick55cpaid-57.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Sabres72c9,161$6,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,565.053764.9%24 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bb6…cb97backed Sabres72c8,640$6,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,419.25350.9%27 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Golden Knights54c8,100$4,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,348.9927850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Sabres47c7,925$3,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,170.211,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4920…2ef4backed Sabres65c7,853$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,752.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Golden Knights55c7,684$4,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,209.5161950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Sabres73c7,531$5,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,008.4789636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ea…bb01backed Sabres45c6,695$3,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,682.233435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebc7…4003backed Sabres46c6,599$3,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,563.4211553%61 W · 54 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Sabres44c6,536$2,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,653.222,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Sabres74c6,370$4,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,652.33354.5%18 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Sabres46c5,778$2,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,120.537754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Sabres46c5,555$2,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,988.5510850.9%55 W · 53 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc61…b126backed Golden Knights54c5,434$2,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,934.36425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-58%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Golden Knights53c5,072$2,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,688.1926849.6%133 W · 135 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Sabres44c5,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,80013948.2%67 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Golden Knights56c5,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.9919353.9%104 W · 89 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30a3…1943backed Sabres46c4,996$2,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,697.662853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Sabres46c4,827$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,626.8924749.8%123 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Golden Knights54c4,630$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5008544.7%38 W · 47 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Sabres45c4,500$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,49062346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Sabres45c4,500$2,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,454.9960337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Golden Knights21c4,350$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.842040%8 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Golden Knights51c4,273$2,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,189.1383652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Sabres47c4,171$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,210.6386852.4%455 W · 413 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x034b…b22bbacked Golden Knights53c4,094$2,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1701020%2 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-60.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Golden Knights53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,12030552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Sabres45c4,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.9639752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x808c…b77ebacked Sabres45c3,992$1,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,195.421330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-25%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Golden Knights27c3,874$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.351,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b7…3e1cbacked Sabres64c3,704$2,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.61837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Sabres45c3,452$1,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,898.63751.4%19 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Sabres73c3,425$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.664553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0c…7c83backed Golden Knights38c3,397$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3003548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Golden Knights55c3,389$1,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,860.9336349%178 W · 185 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Sabres46c3,261$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.8731550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Golden Knights15c3,224$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.1575251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Sabres47c3,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,59012436.3%45 W · 79 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Sabres45c3,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,65029146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Sabres44c3,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.9627547.6%131 W · 144 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Golden Knights23c2,779$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.8925635.9%92 W · 164 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Sabres47c2,777$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,477.2489249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Golden Knights55c2,688$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,471.5945751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Sabres47c2,468$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,305.561,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Golden Knights21c2,362$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50043743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71e7…79f1backed Golden Knights53c2,257$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.2120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Sabres47c2,128$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.6628152%146 W · 135 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Golden Knights53c2,116$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.3854047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Sabres45c2,106$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,158.2984953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Golden Knights54c2,099$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.5114553.1%77 W · 68 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Sabres47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,06013333.1%44 W · 89 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Golden Knights56c1,786$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00085250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Golden Knights55c1,780$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97961959.1%366 W · 253 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Golden Knights53c1,745$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.0620552.2%107 W · 98 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Sabres71c1,730$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.7714757.1%84 W · 63 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Sabres48c1,595$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831.2310938.5%42 W · 67 L-9.2wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb603…754bbacked Golden Knights51c1,538$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.483740.5%15 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x628f…0bedbacked Golden Knights57c1,531$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.464847.9%23 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Sabres45c1,522$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.3125447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05f0…2469backed Sabres47c1,500$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7951758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Golden Knights52c1,500$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.9963249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fa3…172fbacked Golden Knights54c1,485$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.96256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc765…9322backed Sabres71c1,483$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Sabres44c1,477$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.2721849.5%108 W · 110 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Sabres58c1,439$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.762,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a8…5fb5backed Sabres45c1,420$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.131181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.34per pick48cpaid+68.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Golden Knights54c1,400$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.9945749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed Golden Knights28c1,332$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.961225%3 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid+28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe137…a117backed Sabres66c1,179$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4002100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Golden Knights31c1,138$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.0733234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Sabres44c1,136$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.364753.2%25 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Sabres50c1,100$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55057157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f45…d3b8backed Golden Knights55c1,091$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-56.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd714…9a62backed Sabres46c1,087$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.966845.6%31 W · 37 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Sabres47c1,055$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.322857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0338…04b7backed Sabres47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.23956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Sabres49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51027445.6%125 W · 149 L+1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.