NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c6ff45ec63140ab67f0b4271b15f4b4e836ce4b6c38ad14dadf69945cd9122e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabresof Golden Knights, Sabres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,903 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Sabres | 69c | 775.67$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.67 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Golden Knights | 31c | 594.25$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.22 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Golden Knights | 35c | 396.34$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.72 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Sabres | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Golden Knights | 34c | 204$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Sabres | 74c | 175.12$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Sabres | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 103 | 67%69 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Sabres | 66c | 110.2$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 266 | 57.9%154 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Golden Knights | 34c | 102$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Golden Knights | 34c | 102$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 140 | 37.9%53 W · 87 L | -13.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Sabres | 66c | 99.69$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Golden Knights | 35c | 95.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Sabres | 66c | 91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Sabres | 78c | 89.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Golden Knights | 32c | 82.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Golden Knights | 33c | 73.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Sabres | 65c | 60.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Golden Knights | 33c | 54.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Sabres | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sabres | 66c | 48.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24d…9633backed Sabres | 68c | 42.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Golden Knights | 32c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…9af8backed Sabres | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Sabres | 70c | 29.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Sabres | 80c | 23.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Sabres | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Sabres | 67c | 15.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Sabres | 80c | 13.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Sabres vs. Golden KnightsSabres won
- Sabres vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5Under won
- Sabres vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sabres vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Under won
- Sabres vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.