Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x326a488d0460ffed23072e1cf7f3412ac44c123015f98f767493295d3a0b6d71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c21…ca53backed No | 30c | 840$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +228.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 26c | 751.26$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.93 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 24c | 681.8$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.17 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7403…102bbacked Yes | 74c | 651.26$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 49c | 612.52$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.13 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde93…bef4backed Yes | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 46c | 306.52$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.86 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 74c | 248.64$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.99 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7f…44afbacked Yes | 76c | 160.53$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +224.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab1…7df3backed Yes | 76c | 120$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 25c | 109.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.27 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 24c | 49.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee1…398abacked Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Galatasaray beat FK RFS?this page
- Will FK RFS beat Galatasaray?No won
- Will the match between FK RFS and Galatasaray end in a Draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.