NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pacers (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6185076da40b51eda472814883a17564ea07ec7833cd1cb76fc78e381a9a0da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Pacers, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Wizards | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Pacers | 47c | 8,084$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,799.64 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers | 47c | 5,332$2,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,506.04 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Wizards | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Wizards | 58c | 2,209$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.88 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Pacers | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Pacers | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 50c | 1,898$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.37 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab1…7df3backed Pacers | 1c | 1,471$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -28%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Wizards | 53c | 1,066$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.44 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed Pacers | 45c | 999.99$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Pacers | 49c | 778.82$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.62 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Pacers | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ef…d497backed Pacers | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Pacers | 22c | 424.83$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Wizards | 53c | 299.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Wizards | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Wizards | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Wizards | 51c | 178.33$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Pacers | 46c | 143.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 80c | 143$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Wizards | 54c | 130$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Wizards | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Wizards | 52c | 91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…73e7backed Pacers | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Wizards | 54c | 76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Wizards | 54c | 76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Pacers | 47c | 69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Wizards | 54c | 64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Wizards | 54c | 64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…d6bdbacked Pacers | 46c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Pacers | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cb…9c55backed Wizards | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Pacers | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed Pacers | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…6febbacked Pacers | 46c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Wizards | 54c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Wizards | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Pacers | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Pacers | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Wizards | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Pacers | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Wizards | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pacers (-10.5)this page
- Spread: Pacers (-8.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pacers (-9.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. PacersWizards won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.