NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda94013969bf50b9ce600fe989f729076f61a09b04c703dd912eaecc08f808a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Over | 50c | 2,303$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.42 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -10.6wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 1,478$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.96 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 53c | 1,415$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.09 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ef…d497backed Under | 49c | 1,018$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 991$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.65 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 49c | 882$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.57 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 51c | 871$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.79 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 52c | 804.35$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.09 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 51c | 445.79$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.35 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfce…b388backed Under | 48c | 420$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 324$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.93 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 46c | 208.64$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.89 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Under | 51c | 205$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.45 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…06c2backed Under | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Under | 50c | 131$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 50c | 108$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…b60cbacked Over | 51c | 93.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -12.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Under | 48c | 79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Under | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Over | 49c | 59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Over | 49c | 57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Over | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Under | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…7d84backed Over | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b99…db9abacked Under | 54c | 50.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 185 | 49.2%91 W · 94 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…a4aabacked Over | 49c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -6.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked Over | 50c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 45c | 35.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed Over | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…bd9fbacked Over | 50c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked Over | 52c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…3443backed Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…cc15backed Over | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5this page
- Spread: Pacers (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pacers (-8.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pacers (-9.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. PacersWizards won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.