NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e3c88133b88010304345d793536a3f99f2d19355c5da645d99ea303b4328ed5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdda4…b823backed Under | 47c | 5,319$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,819.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 2,985$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,582.09 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 2,004$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.08 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 1c | 1,620$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62d8…4867backed Over | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 53c | 421.28$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.28 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe238…ec63backed Under | 47c | 421.28$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…3ef7backed Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…ce91backed Over | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -9.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 35c | 135.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 54c | 122.07$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Over | 55c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 336 | 50.6%170 W · 166 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 45c | 59.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…8d4bbacked Over | 55c | 59.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5256…24a5backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 55c | 28.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5this page
- Spread: Pacers (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pacers (-8.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Pacers (-9.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. PacersWizards won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.