Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cfdff339c1ccfb9b66f69916502bb0a5e2da61e845d1750a7fbb763f38bbf06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,060,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,130,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,060,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 279 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 34c | 105,450$35,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69,721.48 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed No | 7c | 42,000$3,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,093.59 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 9c | 27,427$2,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,496.67 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 23,762$5,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,446.29 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 3c | 22,324$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,713.65 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 8c | 16,558$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,299.15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 24c | 14,393$3,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,998.04 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 53c | 14,233$7,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,681.69 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 36c | 14,194$5,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,042.64 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…20d6backed No | 20c | 11,820$2,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,362.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed No | 56c | 10,204$5,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,714.14 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 5c | 10,158$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,655.49 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 48c | 9,260$4,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,857.16 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 55c | 8,785$4,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,945.6 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 68c | 8,647$5,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,802.49 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…7532backed Yes | 62c | 6,300$3,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,380.1 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed No | 32c | 6,287$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.48 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 20c | 6,182$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,963.91 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 14c | 5,707$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,917.57 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 12c | 5,621$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.54 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…e2febacked Yes | 19c | 4,875$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,953.76 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 54c | 4,824$2,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,222.61 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388f…4083backed No | 23c | 4,576$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.02 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa175…5597backed Yes | 34c | 4,451$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,921.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 24c | 4,173$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.83 | 122 | 13.9%17 W · 105 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dd…c5b7backed Yes | 72c | 3,950$2,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.95 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a8…6b32backed No | 2c | 3,867$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 3,710$2,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,625.66 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 42c | 3,708$1,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,159.98 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…6a03backed Yes | 50c | 3,418$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707.7 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6e…0cf9backed No | 29c | 3,393$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…ca6abacked Yes | 18c | 3,365$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,764.9 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes | 44c | 3,315$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,843.76 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 33c | 3,184$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.97 | 248 | 73%181 W · 67 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…a912backed Yes | 4c | 3,156$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,039.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +275.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 46c | 2,790$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.38 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 3c | 2,635$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,557.45 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 77c | 2,609$2,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.86 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Yes | 28c | 2,599$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,875.2 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 62c | 2,565$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.17 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 12c | 2,531$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,239.07 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed No | 56c | 2,500$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5424…f10dbacked Yes | 70c | 2,250$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +215.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 2,197$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.19 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 28c | 2,146$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.88 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ff…8ed7backed No | 47c | 2,146$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -4.2wins | -0.38per pick | 65cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 63c | 1,921$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.27 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 1c | 1,853$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed No | 28c | 1,850$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.14 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 4c | 1,765$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,687.86 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 72c | 1,749$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.57 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 38c | 1,670$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.19 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Yes | 3c | 1,604$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,552.85 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 5c | 1,598$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,517.73 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,593$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.82 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 12c | 1,591$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.3 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 15c | 1,548$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.78 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…510ebacked Yes | 76c | 1,487$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…9fb0backed Yes | 62c | 1,435$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.55 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 31c | 1,429$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.28 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 42c | 1,417$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.78 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 56c | 1,362$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.35 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe04f…f395backed Yes | 4c | 1,338$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +155.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…6141backed Yes | 72c | 1,334$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2028…e658backed Yes | 29c | 1,310$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.08 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0223…34d1backed Yes | 26c | 1,309$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.76 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed No | 22c | 1,257$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a1…7456backed Yes | 63c | 1,246$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.32 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…ea39backed Yes | 8c | 1,227$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +298.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 47c | 1,200$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.69 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed Yes | 3c | 1,196$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.94 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +127.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 32c | 1,164$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.05 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f4…dffdbacked No | 23c | 1,154$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.37 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 2c | 1,145$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.62 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…1484backed Yes | 64c | 1,141$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.94 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…fdf6backed Yes | 56c | 1,107$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.04 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 5c | 1,064$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.1 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…330abacked No | 29c | 1,062$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.96 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 1,055$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 6c | 1,030$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.7 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…0444backed Yes | 33c | 1,027$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.59 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f1…18e6backed Yes | 14c | 1,003$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.29 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.32 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +234.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…d9dfbacked No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 17c | 999.45$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.57 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…24d6backed Yes | 63c | 971.93$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.36 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 48c | 903.38$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.73 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 54c | 902.05$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.48 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…a88abacked Yes | 54c | 755.44$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.24 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 4c | 745$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.53 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff8…daa9backed No | 27c | 740.01$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed No | 16c | 730.34$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed No | 3c | 718.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…81d1backed No | 38c | 713.53$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0e…fdb4backed Yes | 69c | 702.02$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 30c | 700.28$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.44 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d1…a8eebacked Yes | 44c | 687.2$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.71 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab1…7df3backed Yes | 66c | 686.39$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.13 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 46cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 55c | 631.51$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.33 | 124 | 12.1%15 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times August 1–August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.