Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 1–August 8?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5f75a1b368ed9c684ced79f9c72a9fca0b6ffa743001640c61d7391f0c872a1

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 6, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $824,471
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $302,499

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $824,471 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe24f…bae5backed Yes	0c	154,990$760 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$759.92	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	3c	46,465$1,546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,546.05	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	6c	41,254$2,599 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,599.24	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes	2c	22,505$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$438.61	59	10.2%6 W · 53 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	+12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	0c	21,000$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	6c	19,032$1,114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,114	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5643…5390backed Yes	9c	16,000$1,460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,459.72	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb976…484fbacked Yes	4c	14,032$507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$507.15	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb1…2b68backed Yes	0c	11,140$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.14	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	3c	10,494$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.67	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes	10c	9,846$1,003 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,002.72	312	17.9%56 W · 256 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	7c	9,409$682 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$681.72	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	4c	9,369$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.89	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf224…7532backed Yes	7c	8,000$592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$592	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0013…3c30backed Yes	3c	7,883$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	9c	7,684$688 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$687.86	153	13.1%20 W · 133 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	5c	7,336$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.52	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	6c	5,980$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.81	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d57…a418backed Yes	6c	5,873$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes	4c	5,681$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.94	62	8.1%5 W · 57 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-73.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	6c	5,679$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.65	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc542…231bbacked Yes	10c	5,670$567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$567.03	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+3.6wins	+0.15per pick	17cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	8c	5,482$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.26	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	8c	5,428$456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456.13	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x767c…ca6abacked Yes	13c	5,366$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes	4c	5,200$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.14	347	14.7%51 W · 296 L	+13.8wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	8c	5,053$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.5	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb41f…27fabacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	9c	4,890$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.01	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	2c	4,833$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.09	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e7d…dd10backed Yes	4c	4,506$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.08	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-54%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07b9…db98backed Yes	6c	4,127$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.6	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+127.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	4,052$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.97	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	3c	4,045$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.82	271	5.2%14 W · 257 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes	8c	3,676$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.92	94	11.7%11 W · 83 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	5c	3,500$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	11c	3,309$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.12	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed Yes	12c	3,219$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.05	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes	7c	3,187$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.19	218	10.1%22 W · 196 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…a912backed Yes	3c	3,122$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	+275.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	11c	3,048$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.56	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe6e…6254backed Yes	2c	2,984$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ce…b5d6backed Yes	9c	2,979$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.73	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes	2c	2,710$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.52	192	2.1%4 W · 188 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	10c	2,689$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.2	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7dd…c5b7backed Yes	8c	2,670$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.48	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-75.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	5c	2,640$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.02	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d5…c223backed Yes	2c	2,502$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.94	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-71%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	8c	2,448$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.75	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a1…7456backed Yes	14c	2,446$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345	51	17.6%9 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-55%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf15a…6df2backed Yes	9c	2,437$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.46	90	13.3%12 W · 78 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f19…af6bbacked Yes	11c	2,357$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.71	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe451…7920backed Yes	8c	2,336$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.05	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Yes	4c	2,300$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	82	11%9 W · 73 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes	1c	2,200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.6	181	8.3%15 W · 166 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	11c	2,150$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.2	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	7c	2,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf5e…4168backed Yes	7c	1,953$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.98	46	17.4%8 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed Yes	4c	1,773$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.62	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x949b…1034backed Yes	14c	1,705$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.81	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	14c	1,667$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.25	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	18c	1,560$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.93	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	14c	1,552$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.72	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes	14c	1,505$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.8	62	19.4%12 W · 50 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes	8c	1,501$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.69	84	13.1%11 W · 73 L	-5.3wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaba5…b775backed Yes	15c	1,475$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e61…a88abacked Yes	10c	1,365$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-58.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff18…d073backed Yes	9c	1,332$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.9	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	+5.3wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	+25.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes	15c	1,314$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.95	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+2.8wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e30…0444backed Yes	9c	1,295$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	2c	1,250$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	31	6.5%2 W · 29 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46c6…a48ebacked Yes	11c	1,159$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.79	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f6…6abdbacked Yes	17c	1,153$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	47	25.5%12 W · 35 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe04f…f395backed Yes	3c	1,149$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.32	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	13cpaid	+155.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92f1…18e6backed Yes	5c	1,112$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	50	22%11 W · 39 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc437…9fb0backed Yes	10c	1,085$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.37	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x656e…65d2backed Yes	18c	1,073$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a54…7663backed Yes	10c	1,032$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	109	23.9%26 W · 83 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes	6c	1,031$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.47	50	10%5 W · 45 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x602f…20e1backed Yes	9c	1,014$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-4.8wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	+97.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f21…3bcebacked Yes	10c	999.99$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	980$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.22	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	10c	928.74$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.37	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9de…3af5backed Yes	14c	923.42$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.97	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.22per pick	35cpaid	-79.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	2c	900$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.8	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8172…abeabacked Yes	5c	870.4$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	852.4$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.62	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	6c	834.57$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.55	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x806d…d6f1backed Yes	15c	825.47$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes	10c	817.83$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	56	17.9%10 W · 46 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd301…49cdbacked Yes	12c	815.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	+29%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24db…5947backed Yes	9c	800$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.6	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-2.5wins	-0.10per pick	23cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1032…77f1backed Yes	12c	785$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.16	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes	4c	767$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.06	70	22.9%16 W · 54 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62f7…129abacked Yes	2c	750$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x415d…9883backed Yes	2c	741.43$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.76	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38f1…7c30backed Yes	13c	732.52$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.72	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01ba…929fbacked Yes	14c	699.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 1–August 8?this page
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?Yes won
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times August 1–August 8?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 1–August 8?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event