Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 1–August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4ebed0a63f14ac0aaacd08e0c5fb3b9b60295b2d73b7a983523c3b56242d8d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $479,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $249,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $479,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 1c | 77,777$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.77 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 1c | 31,915$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.58 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 2c | 20,002$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.69 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 13,911$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.94 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…231bbacked Yes | 3c | 13,103$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.08 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 17cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 80c | 12,500$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 7c | 11,289$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.16 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 0c | 10,681$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 8,750$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 7c | 8,008$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.02 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…7532backed Yes | 21c | 8,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 8c | 6,137$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.99 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 15c | 5,000$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 4c | 4,900$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.75 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 22c | 4,475$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.2 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 0c | 4,418$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed Yes | 0c | 3,870$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 98 | 1%1 W · 97 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 6c | 3,553$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.6 | 124 | 12.1%15 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 14c | 3,233$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.74 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 19c | 3,100$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.67 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 10c | 2,705$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.47 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 16c | 2,421$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.65 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 21c | 2,408$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.96 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 2,235$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.01 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 1,725$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.06 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…7607backed Yes | 19c | 1,607$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.26 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 17c | 1,596$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.18 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0100…c58abacked Yes | 3c | 1,551$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 12c | 1,500$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.7 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4f…7dd3backed Yes | 1c | 1,443$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 77c | 1,350$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.5 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,350$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…4bc6backed Yes | 2c | 1,267$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a26…a80fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,202$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ce…b5d6backed No | 79c | 1,145$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.45 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x806d…d6f1backed Yes | 9c | 1,107$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b8…8363backed Yes | 22c | 1,023$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…73cabacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7d…dd10backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8011…7198backed Yes | 15c | 999.67$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 990$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3558…8e1abacked Yes | 21c | 952.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d16…9686backed Yes | 2c | 891.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 15c | 799.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.6 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 16c | 700$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 6c | 699.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 21c | 670.31$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.05 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed No | 79c | 642.61$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.83 | 181 | 63%114 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 14c | 615$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.45 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed Yes | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 12c | 600$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 542.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 19c | 540$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dd…c5b7backed Yes | 22c | 521$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.92 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe68f…90a1backed Yes | 5c | 516.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes | 16c | 450$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd674…8b2dbacked Yes | 23c | 435$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed Yes | 5c | 409.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…5cd7backed Yes | 21c | 404.76$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 404.31$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.11 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3a…f674backed Yes | 21c | 400$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.79 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b52…b65ebacked Yes | 20c | 375$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 5c | 350.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 10c | 350$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…6a03backed Yes | 16c | 339.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 6c | 314$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…93acbacked Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…2a5dbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e9…35b8backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e5…c3d4backed Yes | 21c | 291.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed Yes | 13c | 279$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd952…620bbacked Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 5c | 255.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 15c | 220.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 13c | 205$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…f38bbacked Yes | 20c | 201$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 48 | 4.2%2 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…1f26backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…31a4backed Yes | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9321…7a34backed Yes | 15c | 156.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e1…8290backed Yes | 13c | 154$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11c4…4211backed Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…7c30backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7524…5472backed Yes | 15c | 130$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e55…e157backed No | 79c | 127$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8548…813abacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847f…b53bbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2763…c8b3backed Yes | 23c | 113.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…5d1fbacked Yes | 21c | 109.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f1…18e6backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a2…fa4dbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 105.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 21c | 105$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 1–August 8?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times August 1–August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.