Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times August 1–August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd52bbab00a28d58175921d325d409743bfb20d88e5cf22f813aa676d6fbb83ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $333,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $333,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 0c | 74,177$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 30,254$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.12 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 6c | 17,047$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.6 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 1c | 14,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 0c | 10,443$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 2c | 8,000$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.97 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 6,774$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 3c | 4,177$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.86 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed Yes | 1c | 3,862$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 98 | 1%1 W · 97 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,971$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x752a…282fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,678$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 4c | 2,365$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.61 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490c…b628backed Yes | 1c | 2,306$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d16…9686backed Yes | 6c | 2,007$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.7 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 4c | 1,776$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 1,638$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.44 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 4c | 1,505$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49cd…d6f4backed Yes | 7c | 1,421$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…7607backed Yes | 7c | 1,399$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 2c | 1,392$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ce…b5d6backed Yes | 5c | 1,392$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,264$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd674…8b2dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,123$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 2c | 1,077$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 4c | 1,044$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8011…7198backed Yes | 4c | 1,007$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…31a4backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 1c | 999.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 2c | 949.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8548…813abacked Yes | 3c | 748.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 2c | 700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 7c | 604.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 5c | 599.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…710fbacked Yes | 3c | 571.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed Yes | 4c | 545.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +127.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4052…89d6backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd822…3127backed Yes | 3c | 416.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 7c | 403.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed Yes | 6c | 403.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…caa7backed Yes | 6c | 397.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…5cd7backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a47…f6d7backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9321…7a34backed Yes | 5c | 306.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1af…5611backed Yes | 7c | 276$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -83%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…f38bbacked Yes | 18c | 222.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed Yes | 8c | 212.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3d…2e64backed Yes | 8c | 173.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb6…8e97backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times August 1–August 8?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times August 1–August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.