Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet 135–149 times August 1–August 8?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76824cfaabec85256b88f7499c2c910525ddb87ba6b3cd9b55f5915a21456233

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 4, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $333,322
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $95,628

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $333,322 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	36,000$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	26,872$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520.88	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes	0c	20,256$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.79	59	10.2%6 W · 53 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	+12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71d9…4738backed Yes	0c	14,292$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.88	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-82.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	0c	8,700$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	6c	8,000$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf224…7532backed Yes	15c	8,000$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes	4c	7,661$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.11	181	8.3%15 W · 166 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	3c	5,200$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.05	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x454b…8bacbacked Yes	11c	5,000$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530	67	20.9%14 W · 53 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a54…7663backed Yes	15c	4,999$762 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$761.6	109	23.9%26 W · 83 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	1c	4,766$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.34	271	5.2%14 W · 257 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	5c	2,998$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.93	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b89…e708backed Yes	9c	2,750$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.5	100	8%8 W · 92 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	2,578$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.62	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d16…9686backed Yes	2c	2,218$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.7	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.05	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	3c	2,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes	3c	2,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	192	2.1%4 W · 188 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes	16c	1,977$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.48	312	17.9%56 W · 256 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	14c	1,500$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.99	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,429$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.79	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xccdc…567bbacked Yes	3c	1,306$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.65	227	10.1%23 W · 204 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	-35%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	2c	1,224$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.26	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	12c	1,200$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8011…7198backed Yes	12c	1,095$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.10per pick	8cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x490c…b628backed Yes	4c	1,086$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	2c	1,003$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	7c	1,000$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda58…7ba8backed Yes	6c	999.97$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.1	155	11.6%18 W · 137 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x806d…d6f1backed Yes	4c	918.06$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed Yes	12c	897.98$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.9	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	6c	787.42$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.58	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	769.97$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.13	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	3c	750$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.8	31	6.5%2 W · 29 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0013…3c30backed Yes	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a26…a80fbacked Yes	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x437c…d953backed Yes	16c	621.8$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.8	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7dd…c5b7backed Yes	14c	620$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.2	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-75.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd674…8b2dbacked Yes	17c	589$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.13	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6cf8…dba1backed Yes	17c	550$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.5	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fb3…4393backed Yes	4c	500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	138	21.7%30 W · 108 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes	14c	500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	3c	490$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.55	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x798f…cef0backed Yes	9c	450$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.5	430	17%73 W · 357 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b52…b65ebacked Yes	18c	416.67$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc24a…5cd7backed Yes	13c	346.15$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	67	17.9%12 W · 55 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	3c	340.65$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9321…7a34backed Yes	8c	316.74$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes	11c	300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-2.3wins	-0.12per pick	23cpaid	-76.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x88e1…8290backed Yes	7c	286$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.02	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.14per pick	25cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed Yes	14c	285.71$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	8	25%2 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2335…6b4fbacked Yes	6c	256.63$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	18cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8548…813abacked Yes	9c	255.56$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	14c	252$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.57	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb349…f38bbacked Yes	19c	207$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-2.4wins	-0.10per pick	22cpaid	-27%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x59e9…35b8backed Yes	17c	200$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb72d…c1d8backed Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	76	38.2%29 W · 47 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes	10c	195$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.87	85	14.1%12 W · 73 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x055e…de32backed Yes	7c	185.71$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	47	36.2%17 W · 30 L	+4.0wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	-6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b37…0199backed Yes	14c	178.57$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a47…f6d7backed Yes	14c	143.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-43%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92f1…18e6backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	22%11 W · 39 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c53…31a4backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	10c	120$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes	14c	120$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.21	218	10.1%22 W · 196 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…902dbacked Yes	9c	119.05$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.17per pick	29cpaid	-77.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dac…2985backed Yes	16c	112.5$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0224…c8aabacked Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7524…5472backed Yes	11c	101.67$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-39%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e11…e6cbbacked Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x557a…d8b4backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc437…9fb0backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa789…fb63backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	50	14%7 W · 43 L	-3.4wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d07…4010backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	82	36.6%30 W · 52 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c5b…a790backed Yes	15c	90$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5912…6c5fbacked Yes	15c	90$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	13c	80$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda15…2762backed Yes	16c	80$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	53	15.1%8 W · 45 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Elon tweet 135–149 times August 1–August 8?this page
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?Yes won
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times August 1–August 8?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon tweet 135–149 times August 1–August 8?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event