Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 1–August 8?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2a6fed194b90901622b712fb6083ac6d58e38c546a8a7d36289b3380777bbcd

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 5, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $606,976
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $188,054

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $606,976 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	77,706$966 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$965.97	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50a8…143fbacked Yes	0c	66,613$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.61	46	2.2%1 W · 45 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	1cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	6c	33,456$1,965 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,964.78	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes	2c	22,601$564 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$564.32	59	10.2%6 W · 53 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	+12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	4c	17,581$652 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$652	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb976…484fbacked Yes	1c	14,967$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.46	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	3c	9,409$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.87	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	4c	8,299$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.37	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf224…7532backed Yes	12c	8,000$938 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$937.71	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	6c	7,250$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466.27	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	9c	6,476$606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$606.05	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	8c	6,365$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.83	153	13.1%20 W · 133 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48ce…b5d6backed Yes	4c	5,865$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.17	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07b9…db98backed Yes	7c	5,749$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$427.77	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+127.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	8c	5,538$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.42	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	4c	5,445$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.88	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	9c	5,444$471 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470.91	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	4c	5,422$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe24f…bae5backed Yes	9c	5,100$474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$474.3	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	3c	4,944$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.53	271	5.2%14 W · 257 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdfa…d143backed Yes	16c	4,746$738 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$737.92	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	22cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed Yes	10c	4,694$491 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.78	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe451…7920backed Yes	4c	4,103$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.65	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	6c	4,000$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	3c	4,000$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.5	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	8c	3,967$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.14	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	10c	3,700$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378.25	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes	6c	3,329$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.02	218	10.1%22 W · 196 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc614…b14bbacked Yes	5c	3,200$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.47	347	14.7%51 W · 296 L	+13.8wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b5c…a912backed Yes	5c	3,180$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	+275.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	3c	3,048$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.97	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	82	11%9 W · 73 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	8c	2,997$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.46	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes	3c	2,983$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.83	181	8.3%15 W · 166 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	2,922$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.74	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	9c	2,840$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.97	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	8c	2,604$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.18	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	11c	2,498$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.29	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,452$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.72	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	6c	2,428$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.94	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	9c	2,247$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.2	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaba5…b775backed Yes	9c	2,147$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	12c	2,141$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.57	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes	9c	2,110$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.7	246	18.7%46 W · 200 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe6e…6254backed Yes	1c	2,017$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	11c	2,003$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.85	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Yes	6c	1,974$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.47	69	4.3%3 W · 66 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-78.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf5e…4168backed Yes	3c	1,953$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.65	46	17.4%8 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d57…a418backed Yes	3c	1,926$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0013…3c30backed Yes	5c	1,898$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes	9c	1,800$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.8	192	2.1%4 W · 188 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e30…0444backed Yes	9c	1,732$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes	4c	1,713$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e7d…dd10backed Yes	1c	1,656$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.56	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-54%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4256…b85ebacked Yes	11c	1,500$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	23cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e61…a88abacked Yes	7c	1,447$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-58.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	1,420$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.36	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	3c	1,357$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.19	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Yes	13c	1,265$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.84	84	17.9%15 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes	7c	1,080$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.6	62	19.4%12 W · 50 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes	12c	1,080$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.71	94	11.7%11 W · 83 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc437…9fb0backed Yes	8c	1,059$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.58	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5d9…cc7abacked Yes	19c	1,001$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	209	73.2%153 W · 56 L	+16.3wins	+0.08per pick	65cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7a1…7456backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	51	17.6%9 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-55%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe04f…f395backed Yes	5c	944.86$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.71	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	13cpaid	+155.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	8c	941.95$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.56	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96da…68b6backed Yes	7c	935.27$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.06	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.15per pick	23cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24db…5947backed Yes	14c	891.46$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.11	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-2.5wins	-0.10per pick	23cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	850$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.8	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes	4c	800$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	+97.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes	3c	776$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.19	70	22.9%16 W · 54 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01ba…929fbacked Yes	13c	760.12$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7dd…c5b7backed Yes	2c	750$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-75.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	2c	700$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda58…7ba8backed Yes	3c	699.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	155	11.6%18 W · 137 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	10c	689.98$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.52	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	4c	675$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	13c	662.19$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.72	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x497b…aba5backed Yes	5c	608.14$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.91	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e3…79ebbacked Yes	17c	605.5$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes	10c	600$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.3	50	10%5 W · 45 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff18…d073backed Yes	8c	580$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.05	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	+5.3wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	+25.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc34b…d054backed Yes	9c	558.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf15a…6df2backed Yes	7c	554.61$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	90	13.3%12 W · 78 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c00…0788backed Yes	5c	532.89$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.28	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	9c	519.99$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.76	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1032…77f1backed Yes	7c	517$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.37	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0301…4bc6backed Yes	8c	515.16$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.9	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes	9c	504.91$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.91	143	8.4%12 W · 131 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	6c	500$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.88	31	6.5%2 W · 29 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd822…3127backed Yes	5c	479.44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.47	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes	6c	473.71$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.51	85	14.1%12 W · 73 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bdd…aa2dbacked Yes	14c	469.73$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	4c	451.52$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.25	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x437c…d953backed Yes	15c	450.47$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes	12c	433.78$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.54	163	19%31 W · 132 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	8c	430$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.07	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes	14c	417.08$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	135	19.3%26 W · 109 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	7c	413.94$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.32	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 1–August 8?this page
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?Yes won
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times August 1–August 8?No won
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times August 1–August 8?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 1–August 8?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event