Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 1–August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10bde7a33c8f7d44a7791ee00d7d1245abcf290267d2dc098248281776168e37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $430,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $430,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 0c | 34,341$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 31,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 1c | 30,874$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.74 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 13c | 20,018$2,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,590.9 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 2c | 13,519$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.88 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 5c | 11,000$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 9c | 10,000$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.5 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 9,593$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.78 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 2c | 9,033$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.54 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…7532backed Yes | 17c | 8,001$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.16 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 15c | 7,531$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.25 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 4c | 6,119$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.48 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 5,315$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a8…6b32backed Yes | 0c | 5,010$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 19c | 5,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 14c | 4,712$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.11 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb64e…9379backed Yes | 18c | 4,500$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 4,120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 3,636$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.04 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 19c | 3,300$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.91 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…a912backed Yes | 18c | 3,110$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +275.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dd…c5b7backed Yes | 7c | 3,057$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.7 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 18c | 2,844$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.82 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 19c | 2,728$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.28 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,673$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 2c | 2,639$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46c6…a48ebacked Yes | 19c | 2,556$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 2c | 2,058$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 9c | 1,998$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.83 | 124 | 12.1%15 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…712bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,910$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,845$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 122 | 13.9%17 W · 105 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,800$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.21 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 2c | 1,673$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 1c | 1,644$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4256…b85ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…129abacked Yes | 8c | 1,400$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…5947backed Yes | 14c | 1,378$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.29 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…b775backed Yes | 20c | 1,200$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a26…a80fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,176$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 2c | 1,108$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 289 | 12.8%37 W · 252 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…32c2backed Yes | 21c | 1,100$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 14c | 1,052$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.22 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,028$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked Yes | 1c | 1,020$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d9…cc7abacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 2c | 955.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 17c | 788.47$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 3c | 784.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b52…b65ebacked Yes | 16c | 750$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 19c | 735.79$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…929fbacked Yes | 17c | 726.62$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…0444backed Yes | 7c | 704.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…afa6backed Yes | 3c | 689.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 688.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…4bc6backed Yes | 6c | 685.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 577.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 11c | 568$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…1484backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes | 21c | 500$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe68f…90a1backed Yes | 7c | 460.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda15…2762backed Yes | 13c | 441.58$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 17c | 400$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3a…f674backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 14c | 388.1$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes | 16c | 375$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 94 | 17%16 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…d50fbacked Yes | 16c | 351.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 13c | 350$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…68b6backed Yes | 6c | 334$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…2a5dbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c9…479ebacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd674…8b2dbacked Yes | 17c | 294$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…93acbacked Yes | 21c | 285.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd952…620bbacked Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 20c | 252.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…5cd7backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x806d…d6f1backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9d…2317backed Yes | 12c | 248.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 246$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 7c | 236$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7d…dd10backed Yes | 5c | 209.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5426…68acbacked Yes | 16c | 207.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c4…c28dbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…c1d8backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 48 | 4.2%2 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 12c | 195$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 1–August 8?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times August 1–August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.