Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times August 1–August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fa8ec6aec82baf141b2ba73e1652f80d5d1d42e560caf25c2ec8d5091dc3bc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $258,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 19,261$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.9 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 1c | 15,555$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.54 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed Yes | 0c | 14,541$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.22 | 98 | 1%1 W · 97 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752a…282fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 7,014$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.07 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…7607backed Yes | 2c | 6,157$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.14 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ce…b5d6backed Yes | 2c | 5,688$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.57 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 2c | 5,622$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 1c | 5,431$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 1c | 3,882$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,862$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,978$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.13 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 1c | 2,338$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,223$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7d…dd10backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd674…8b2dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,665$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed Yes | 1c | 1,540$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +127.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 1,519$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…31a4backed Yes | 4c | 1,465$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 2c | 834.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a47…f6d7backed Yes | 3c | 743.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 3c | 646.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 2c | 609.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 289 | 12.8%37 W · 252 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 2c | 592.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 3c | 516.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…d53ebacked Yes | 3c | 503.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb6…8e97backed Yes | 3c | 315.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…f38bbacked Yes | 8c | 262.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times August 1–August 8?this page
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times August 1–August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.