Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 1–August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d2a7e51ffc91af437a163087752cdc9eb191e9c69f578e29dc6da24738bdbb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $479,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $249,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $479,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 1c | 77,777$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.77 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 1c | 36,001$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.06 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfa…d143backed Yes | 21c | 20,486$4,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,348.41 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 10c | 20,025$1,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,922.18 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 1c | 14,122$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 10,467$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 1c | 8,961$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…7532backed Yes | 18c | 8,000$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.17 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 8c | 8,000$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.87 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 7,955$6,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.51 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 13c | 7,203$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.83 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 0c | 6,678$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 79c | 6,186$4,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.03 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 21c | 5,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 8c | 4,435$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.8 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 3c | 4,100$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6070…8a11backed Yes | 0c | 4,002$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 11c | 3,577$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.06 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,306$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 19c | 3,107$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.49 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,090$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ce…079fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,026$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 1%1 W · 97 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 1c | 2,723$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 10c | 2,600$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 6c | 2,498$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.88 | 124 | 12.1%15 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 16c | 2,383$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.44 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 1c | 2,379$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 18c | 2,200$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…712bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,023$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 14c | 2,010$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.54 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f04…73d5backed Yes | 1c | 1,963$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4256…b85ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…ac8ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,336$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 1,315$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.8 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe79…9d68backed Yes | 1c | 1,292$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 79c | 1,250$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,223$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 1c | 1,147$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e3…491fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,140$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 1,112$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.44 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…32c2backed Yes | 19c | 1,100$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…1484backed Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a26…a80fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,026$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…73cabacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d9…cc7abacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 19c | 989.32$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.97 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 10c | 955.06$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.51 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 17c | 719$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.51 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 20c | 703.66$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.3 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 2c | 599.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…4bc6backed Yes | 4c | 568.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 4c | 521.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 289 | 12.8%37 W · 252 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dd…c5b7backed Yes | 20c | 510$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes | 21c | 500$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…dba1backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd674…8b2dbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…d9dfbacked No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 4c | 485.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 21c | 480$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 20c | 450$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…5cd7backed Yes | 19c | 421.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68f…90a1backed Yes | 12c | 410.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3a…f674backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa789…fb63backed Yes | 21c | 400$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 61 | 13.1%8 W · 53 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c9…479ebacked Yes | 18c | 333.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes | 20c | 321.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 94 | 17%16 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…2a5dbacked Yes | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 13c | 299$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x806d…d6f1backed Yes | 18c | 284.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…1f26backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b52…b65ebacked Yes | 20c | 245.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…93acbacked Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f1…18e6backed Yes | 20c | 236.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd952…620bbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 216$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 8c | 205.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aa2dbacked Yes | 22c | 204.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59e9…35b8backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…c1d8backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 48 | 4.2%2 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…f38bbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda15…2762backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 8c | 161.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9321…7a34backed Yes | 15c | 136.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2028…e658backed Yes | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 14c | 130$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6227…18dabacked Yes | 17c | 126.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…ea70backed Yes | 16c | 123.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 139 | 26.6%37 W · 102 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…34a2backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c4…4211backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 1–August 8?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times August 1–August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.