Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 1–August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd761f0fdd328238f094422bbbcf136e658345f0dc72d7c28339a320911b42d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $446,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $185,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $446,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 2c | 46,966$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.2 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 1c | 23,464$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.43 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 11c | 20,133$2,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,185.52 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 8c | 11,000$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.95 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…7532backed Yes | 10c | 8,000$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.27 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 7,411$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.81 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,975$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.33 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 6,543$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.65 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,001$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 14c | 5,790$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.03 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,300$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a8…6b32backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 6c | 4,252$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.75 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 4c | 4,160$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.23 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,800$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 3,769$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.82 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 19c | 3,300$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.2 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 4c | 3,212$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.16 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…a912backed Yes | 13c | 3,205$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +275.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 2c | 3,056$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 2c | 3,005$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a3…5532backed Yes | 19c | 2,588$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 4c | 2,543$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 13c | 2,197$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.06 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 5c | 2,092$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,960$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 4c | 1,953$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,900$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.71 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 23c | 1,709$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.91 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dd…c5b7backed Yes | 7c | 1,660$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.94 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,519$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4256…b85ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…a88abacked Yes | 3c | 1,486$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a26…a80fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,360$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…bd6fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,245$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 21c | 1,238$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.14 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,202$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 122 | 13.9%17 W · 105 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,200$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.7 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…b775backed Yes | 21c | 1,159$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 2c | 1,117$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…32c2backed Yes | 20c | 1,100$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea0…a84bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,046$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 7c | 1,045$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes | 11c | 1,040$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ce…b5d6backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d9…cc7abacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…5947backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7d…dd10backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 4c | 998.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 124 | 12.1%15 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 4c | 947.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…1484backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 12c | 905.12$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.61 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b8…8363backed Yes | 17c | 842.88$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 2c | 837.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 3c | 819.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 13c | 819.24$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.3 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes | 13c | 805.16$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.67 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…d50fbacked Yes | 19c | 800$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0301…4bc6backed Yes | 6c | 755.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aa2dbacked Yes | 9c | 681.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 4c | 652.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 637.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 3c | 600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 11c | 597.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa50f…84cdbacked Yes | 7c | 592.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe04f…f395backed Yes | 16c | 563$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +155.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…a487backed Yes | 4c | 540$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31c…0bd6backed Yes | 3c | 494.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 87 | 23%20 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…df80backed Yes | 4c | 474.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 9c | 460$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd6…6682backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 3c | 451.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed Yes | 18c | 440.78$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.34 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…0444backed Yes | 7c | 417.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd952…620bbacked Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 13c | 412.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 5c | 411.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…929fbacked Yes | 12c | 411.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…5cd7backed Yes | 5c | 402.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3a…f674backed Yes | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…9fb0backed Yes | 3c | 390$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes | 16c | 380$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa600…36c7backed Yes | 12c | 375.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9321…7a34backed Yes | 7c | 359.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 7c | 356.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…9435backed Yes | 9c | 346.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 6c | 345$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 5c | 324.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed Yes | 3c | 322.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…7c30backed Yes | 4c | 320$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3291…660cbacked Yes | 16c | 312.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 1–August 8?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times August 1–August 8?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times August 1–August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.