TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Trump launch a coin before the election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,899,061
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,007,455

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,899,061 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 4,242 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x47bc…abd2backed No1c4,599,769$47,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,123.05742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-19.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No0c2,477,169$7,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,083.0760%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b4…61f9backed No1c2,000,000$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba27…fe3cbacked No1c1,463,929$8,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,295.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43eb…ecd0backed No1c1,285,399$10,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,976.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed No1c1,254,898$9,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,180.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0488…bab2backed No2c965,315$14,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,726.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48f7…1656backed No1c962,946$6,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,116.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf00e…b77cbacked No1c949,517$8,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,406.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfda6…9b40backed No1c917,226$10,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,010.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d59…133dbacked No1c831,275$6,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,456.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bfd…b5f3backed No1c767,127$8,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,149.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f55…6f08backed No2c670,938$16,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,007.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd67e…35e0backed No1c633,287$4,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,478.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x203a…ae5bbacked No1c559,638$7,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,917.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b2…15b5backed No1c544,601$5,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,988.921030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6761…a94fbacked No3c503,823$14,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,726.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1151…4d25backed No1c501,591$5,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,02010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc389…7212backed No1c479,928$5,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,113.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe640…c151backed No1c458,525$5,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,242.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked No1c446,800$5,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,718.730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1e…04d0backed No2c436,867$10,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,006.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3744…c141backed No1c417,211$3,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,350.83616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-74.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a18…2ef0backed No1c399,932$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2815…9aa7backed No1c395,696$3,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,085.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x606e…f3bebacked No1c390,703$2,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,656.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-30.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x52d7…148bbacked No44c379,456$165,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165,878.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4443…d207backed No1c372,568$2,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,046.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0344…2538backed Yes76c339,828$259,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79,885.934100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19de…fb52backed No3c334,407$10,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,232.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd87…ac38backed No1c333,136$2,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,072.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabe5…1d5dbacked No1c329,989$3,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,511.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed No4c320,925$11,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,684.840%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0650…bc71backed No1c316,405$4,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,250.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes74c309,945$230,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79,098.135623.2%13 W · 43 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0da…2a34backed No1c302,300$2,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,020.65520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x135d…e8a3backed No1c294,850$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbab2…6ff9backed No1c289,693$1,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,818.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0831…dce1backed No1c281,589$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea12…f374backed No1c277,344$1,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c15…8b65backed No2c275,314$5,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,68110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c4…bfdebacked No2c271,228$4,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,804.451618.8%3 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick6cpaid+170%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7683…3300backed No1c249,981$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9613…ddb4backed No1c249,927$3,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,004.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9636…b7b7backed No1c233,699$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,600.36540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-47.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb7b…582cbacked No1c225,022$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,579.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8da9…928fbacked No1c220,811$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed No1c217,562$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,540.261637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf579…3e55backed No3c213,349$5,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,577.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd16…4076backed No2c207,267$4,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,998.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda9…cf40backed No1c207,068$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b67…00c7backed No1c200,275$2,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,446.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f66…31e6backed No1c189,278$2,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,494.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a8e…7d58backed No1c188,984$1,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6843…fedcbacked No1c186,784$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ef…19ddbacked No1c186,581$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…2bbbbacked No1c184,788$2,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,736.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b8b…4b24backed No2c184,169$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,92010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf20c…8540backed No1c182,087$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc251…f792backed No1c181,578$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,508.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x566d…d47dbacked No1c179,449$1,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,592.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01ea…a907backed No2c177,412$3,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,342.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f0…719ebacked No1c175,415$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,551.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7c…14b0backed No1c172,854$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00090%0 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84db…a205backed No1c169,858$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…8a96backed No1c167,940$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fbc…b0b8backed No1c162,999$1,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,961.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa81…bb43backed No1c156,625$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11f5…de19backed No1c155,756$1,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,842.560%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…dcd2backed No1c150,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f0f…772bbacked No1c149,969$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54dd…1d0fbacked No1c144,481$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,146.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dab…e5d0backed No1c144,076$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c3c…8f25backed No1c143,117$1,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,716.2290%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x76e2…7784backed No1c142,857$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d9c…4c5fbacked No2c142,691$2,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,359.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x854d…deb0backed No1c141,947$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.6380%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7ce…6398backed No1c141,327$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1258…0c15backed No1c138,794$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.192015%3 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-50.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed No1c138,734$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.81338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b20…7f5cbacked No1c137,455$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf75b…2980backed No34c136,393$46,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,836.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59d0…4464backed No0c134,031$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ed9…b024backed No1c132,500$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,457.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef11…276abacked No1c132,333$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1438…e114backed Yes53c128,931$68,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,793.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4273…19d8backed No2c128,632$2,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0425026%13 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ec…dfdebacked No2c125,365$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedfc…78d7backed No1c125,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9da1…7086backed No1c123,926$1,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5352…78aabacked No1c121,356$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90c2…8ce6backed No1c118,587$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33d3…fe5bbacked No2c118,244$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e88…4c93backed No1c117,098$1,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,547.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x882f…322dbacked No2c116,797$2,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,043.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcc3…6cf2backed No1c114,085$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc615…221dbacked Yes56c114,063$64,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,049.572100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66c5…6383backed No1c112,045$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd212…3610backed No1c110,000$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.5930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes64c109,385$70,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,199.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.