Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed888eb64bffa457086fb5904e9b2046da9aa31c5db36e9d4a303efa7e850d76

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,148,458
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,778,588

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,148,458 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,521 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb862…f6c3backed Yes	1c	83,743$960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$959.66	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes	28c	69,165$19,498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19,498.29	74	36.5%27 W · 47 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes	6c	60,882$3,930 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,930.03	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	+3.3wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x70e5…32aabacked Yes	6c	50,018$2,893 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,893.27	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-78.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x768b…de48backed Yes	13c	42,353$5,499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,498.96	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.9wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x328d…f7a9backed No	70c	32,978$23,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,777.79	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f43…6bc0backed Yes	56c	32,754$18,285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18,285.42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75f0…e11ebacked Yes	40c	30,502$12,157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,157.03	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1711…d1acbacked Yes	46c	28,124$13,010 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,009.78	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-65.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes	4c	27,111$997 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$996.77	185	30.3%56 W · 129 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	21,969$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.69	134	4.5%6 W · 128 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3749…7ad0backed Yes	78c	21,532$16,795 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16,794.6	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	66cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a35…0d46backed Yes	47c	21,383$10,132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,132.38	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x104a…5b05backed Yes	21c	20,962$4,482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,482	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked No	42c	20,849$8,679 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,169.58	73	57.5%42 W · 31 L	+10.1wins	+0.14per pick	44cpaid	+53.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x03b7…1b46backed Yes	1c	20,527$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed Yes	4c	20,126$885 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$884.85	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7523…4c4cbacked Yes	2c	19,949$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.18	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes	3c	19,702$601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600.62	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	42cpaid	+43.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b63…1147backed Yes	78c	19,136$14,994 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14,993.99	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	70cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc10e…6149backed Yes	1c	18,847$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.74	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	1c	17,829$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.37	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Yes	68c	17,459$11,937 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,936.69	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-6.2wins	-0.24per pick	51cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xdc03…804cbacked No	45c	17,181$7,765 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,415.35	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc610…5d03backed Yes	3c	16,588$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No	49c	16,142$7,984 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,157.97	253	37.2%94 W · 159 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b30…c0b6backed Yes	48c	15,368$7,446 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,446.04	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.17per pick	27cpaid	+52.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d1…4c60backed Yes	41c	15,250$6,210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,209.5	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bce…2a45backed Yes	15c	15,058$2,210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,210.17	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-32%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88d4…ffb3backed Yes	41c	14,588$5,970 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,970.2	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2584…a7afbacked Yes	27c	14,200$3,834 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,834	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes	32c	13,369$4,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,299.62	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+51%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	13,279$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.62	234	4.3%10 W · 224 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6bd…0b58backed Yes	68c	13,262$9,027 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,026.71	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+87.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e78…ea77backed No	31c	13,147$4,139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,008.32	48	39.6%19 W · 29 L	+3.2wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cd9…819dbacked Yes	2c	13,114$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeee8…79dfbacked Yes	51c	13,000$6,672 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,672.02	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e4c…1739backed Yes	8c	12,822$992 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$991.75	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.22per pick	28cpaid	+71.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed No	62c	12,718$7,944 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,773.71	67	56.7%38 W · 29 L	+11.4wins	+0.17per pick	40cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked No	37c	12,709$4,653 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,055.28	43	34.9%15 W · 28 L	+4.5wins	+0.11per pick	24cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6efe…8b8ebacked Yes	2c	12,555$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.32	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	+119.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9e…bff4backed No	34c	12,502$4,260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,241.75	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.24per pick	26cpaid	+46.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	12,378$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.63	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x242c…91e4backed Yes	32c	11,900$3,808 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,808	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes	34c	11,811$4,041 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,041.12	432	43.1%186 W · 246 L	+29.2wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce4f…f35ebacked Yes	71c	11,793$8,319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,318.52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.71per pick	71cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes	15c	11,730$1,784 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,784.43	100	37%37 W · 63 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a3e…3770backed Yes	2c	11,630$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-2.4wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x11db…31cabacked No	41c	11,541$4,750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,791.28	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.46per pick	54cpaid	+97.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5780…a6dbbacked Yes	3c	11,350$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.17	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c0e…c51dbacked No	62c	11,297$6,958 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,339.27	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x905c…8425backed Yes	71c	11,197$7,997 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,996.79	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.71per pick	71cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	12c	11,127$1,294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,294.08	576	36.3%209 W · 367 L	-27.2wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6851…5f85backed Yes	1c	10,608$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.99	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b87…6a47backed Yes	64c	10,500$6,726 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,726.05	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2497…e26abacked Yes	69c	10,006$6,897 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,896.56	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+363.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2213…12ebbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d86…85cabacked Yes	3c	9,963$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	8cpaid	+436.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ae…320fbacked Yes	13c	9,926$1,324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,324.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfec1…ce83backed No	40c	9,903$3,961 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,941.8	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.60per pick	40cpaid	+150%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6712…a5f0backed No	50c	9,901$4,951 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,950.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.14per pick	37cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c9…1b1abacked Yes	25c	9,764$2,430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,429.81	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+2.2wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes	22c	9,678$2,126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,126.39	58	17.2%10 W · 48 L	-4.4wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-61%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8699…2a14backed Yes	69c	9,622$6,663 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,663.04	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.69per pick	69cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	46c	9,618$4,472 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,146.17	150	26%39 W · 111 L	-6.7wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27fd…48aebacked Yes	50c	9,357$4,679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,678.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x465e…40c9backed Yes	1c	9,029$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	9cpaid	+110.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…cae1backed Yes	36c	9,013$3,202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,201.86	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	32cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	57c	8,933$5,123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,809.65	884	48.5%429 W · 455 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x055c…42b8backed Yes	50c	8,719$4,360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,359.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	3c	8,647$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.24	77	2.6%2 W · 75 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6452…616dbacked Yes	73c	8,526$6,203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,203.36	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc547…01babacked Yes	1c	8,368$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.74	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc199…db1cbacked Yes	3c	8,335$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	7cpaid	+525%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	3c	8,286$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.21	115	2.6%3 W · 112 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-47%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b8d…db9ebacked No	50c	8,175$4,088 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,087.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x936e…473fbacked Yes	2c	7,897$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.53	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	7,887$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.67	254	3.5%9 W · 245 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf107…b9babacked Yes	12c	7,708$931 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$931.21	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x65dc…11a8backed Yes	66c	7,626$4,996 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,996	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	67cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6232…d757backed No	73c	7,600$5,548 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,052	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+37%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c03…01e2backed Yes	43c	7,594$3,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,300	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0ca…0ec2backed No	67c	7,535$5,054 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,480.86	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	31cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ce…01f5backed Yes	60c	7,408$4,445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,444.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.60per pick	60cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d44…6fbabacked Yes	60c	7,370$4,422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,422	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.60per pick	60cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d4b…8220backed Yes	3c	7,247$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.51	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d21…afdcbacked Yes	70c	7,117$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000.47	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	+37%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a15…ad51backed Yes	71c	7,004$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.71per pick	71cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes	45c	7,000$3,137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,136.76	284	30.3%86 W · 198 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1c…4d4dbacked Yes	53c	6,976$3,717 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,717.34	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1cf…a388backed Yes	1c	6,879$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74d0…d8debacked No	65c	6,878$4,471 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,407.28	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+53.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x934f…8f63backed Yes	73c	6,868$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.73per pick	73cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes	37c	6,856$2,552 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,551.89	56	33.9%19 W · 37 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes	6c	6,803$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.87	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-85.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbba5…154abacked No	68c	6,800$4,624 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,176	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.32per pick	68cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed No	26c	6,788$1,746 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,041.76	96	31.3%30 W · 66 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	29c	6,755$1,947 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,946.64	46	34.8%16 W · 30 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b2…f48bbacked Yes	1c	6,752$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cf3…076cbacked Yes	58c	6,666$3,866 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,866.28	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event