Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b1e18ef56cb7222ce2fb03d6cd9fb8fcca06d80b64d0dacbe6ce2f00ab31d00

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,954,276
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,302,998

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,954,276 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 762 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa0ca…0ec2backed Yes	6c	163,261$10,510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,510.02	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	31cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b4…6fadbacked Yes	1c	100,378$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$625.34	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes	3c	70,567$1,926 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,926.45	253	37.2%94 W · 159 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes	4c	65,666$2,328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,328.17	62	19.4%12 W · 50 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	13cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc10e…6149backed Yes	1c	64,902$812 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$812.19	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes	9c	60,544$5,220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,220.07	432	43.1%186 W · 246 L	+29.2wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d5b…a718backed Yes	7c	53,238$3,823 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,822.82	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e78…ea77backed Yes	6c	52,576$3,245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,245.3	48	39.6%19 W · 29 L	+3.2wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b2b…d9d5backed Yes	3c	40,709$1,314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,313.68	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.24per pick	9cpaid	+292.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce72…5d8abacked Yes	1c	30,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed Yes	7c	29,848$2,191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,190.86	53	30.2%16 W · 37 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	29,419$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.58	134	4.5%6 W · 128 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75f0…e11ebacked Yes	5c	28,606$1,357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,356.72	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes	0c	25,971$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.86	185	30.3%56 W · 129 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes	2c	23,770$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.89	74	36.5%27 W · 47 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc26f…376fbacked Yes	2c	23,635$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$477.52	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4216…24d6backed Yes	8c	22,693$1,808 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,808.02	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	21,945$686 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$685.61	234	4.3%10 W · 224 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c2…55c3backed Yes	8c	21,090$1,726 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,725.86	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	1c	18,903$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.77	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f2c…e158backed Yes	5c	17,940$824 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$823.52	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb862…f6c3backed Yes	2c	15,244$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.5	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes	10c	14,940$1,566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,566	73	57.5%42 W · 31 L	+10.1wins	+0.14per pick	44cpaid	+53.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x221f…3c52backed Yes	1c	14,430$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d1…4c60backed Yes	5c	14,030$751 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$751.16	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd9e…bff4backed Yes	19c	14,015$2,640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,639.74	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.24per pick	26cpaid	+46.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b30…c0b6backed Yes	35c	13,891$4,878 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,877.59	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.17per pick	27cpaid	+52.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes	5c	13,333$670 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$669.62	58	17.2%10 W · 48 L	-4.4wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-61%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e4c…1739backed Yes	6c	12,914$767 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$767.41	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.22per pick	28cpaid	+71.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x465e…40c9backed Yes	15c	12,821$1,915 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,915.28	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	9cpaid	+110.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	3c	12,460$421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$421.33	77	2.6%2 W · 75 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd87…ac38backed Yes	24c	12,424$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…fe98backed Yes	0c	12,074$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	2c	12,000$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.6	444	0.7%3 W · 441 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-87.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8839…1fe1backed Yes	2c	11,900$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes	7c	11,764$795 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$795.44	74	20.3%15 W · 59 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeee8…79dfbacked Yes	12c	11,692$1,346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,346.1	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e34…9cd8backed Yes	5c	11,388$611 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$611.04	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.24per pick	9cpaid	+370.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	11,138$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.29	254	3.5%9 W · 245 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes	7c	11,045$776 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$776.14	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-34%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e82…470fbacked Yes	1c	10,865$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-82.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	8c	10,793$898 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$897.69	182	16.5%30 W · 152 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a77…b6e6backed Yes	6c	10,679$602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$602.07	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	3c	10,584$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.79	115	2.6%3 W · 112 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-47%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc03…804cbacked Yes	14c	10,306$1,441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,441.05	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3841…cd5cbacked Yes	5c	10,232$522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522.1	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.26per pick	24cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc289…7878backed Yes	9c	10,000$874 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$874.49	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3be…0e17backed Yes	3c	9,922$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.34	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x924e…3fe8backed Yes	13c	8,964$1,147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,147.3	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x603c…ac70backed Yes	13c	8,935$1,123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,122.62	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.34per pick	41cpaid	+56.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes	2c	8,921$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.03	49	22.4%11 W · 38 L	+4.7wins	+0.10per pick	13cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	8,719$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.38	211	7.1%15 W · 196 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc838…7369backed Yes	2c	8,623$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.8	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.2wins	+0.24per pick	16cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed Yes	8c	8,586$728 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$727.88	101	22.8%23 W · 78 L	-9.5wins	-0.09per pick	32cpaid	-52.1%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2bd0…e80ebacked Yes	1c	8,549$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.85	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9796…cd65backed Yes	7c	8,501$594 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$594	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fd1…b8ebbacked Yes	3c	8,410$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.63	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e61…6473backed Yes	1c	8,202$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6452…616dbacked Yes	13c	8,149$1,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,020.46	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x842e…ddfebacked Yes	1c	7,900$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.39	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes	9c	7,585$688 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$688.17	117	41%48 W · 69 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x682d…31abbacked Yes	16c	7,326$1,181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,180.84	56	28.6%16 W · 40 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	10c	7,284$724 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$724.15	110	39.1%43 W · 67 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes	1c	7,161$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6efe…8b8ebacked Yes	2c	7,118$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.42	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	+119.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcfb…e789backed Yes	17c	6,951$1,196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,196	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.20per pick	42cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes	9c	6,760$592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$591.89	315	34%107 W · 208 L	+7.7wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	6,361$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.59	63	11.1%7 W · 56 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	6cpaid	+117.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes	2c	6,333$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.36	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-85.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes	11c	6,300$719 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$718.68	284	30.3%86 W · 198 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes	12c	6,000$734 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$734	247	36.8%91 W · 156 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa25c…6430backed Yes	19c	5,838$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	5,484$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.87	45	8.9%4 W · 41 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	5cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1963…5beabacked Yes	4c	5,369$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.79	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.9wins	+0.21per pick	24cpaid	+87.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes	9c	5,276$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.46	302	33.8%102 W · 200 L	+19.2wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes	8c	5,250$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.55	93	48.4%45 W · 48 L	+8.1wins	+0.09per pick	40cpaid	+29.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1711…d1acbacked Yes	8c	5,150$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.7	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-65.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc547…01babacked Yes	1c	5,067$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes	9c	5,000$468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468	133	34.6%46 W · 87 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes	10c	5,000$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca35…ade5backed Yes	7c	5,000$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.88	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	4,991$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.69	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes	9c	4,916$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.42	180	36.7%66 W · 114 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…cae1backed Yes	9c	4,875$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.55	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	32cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed Yes	10c	4,791$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.35	67	56.7%38 W · 29 L	+11.4wins	+0.17per pick	40cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x24f9…3568backed Yes	30c	4,786$1,412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,412.04	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes	5c	4,733$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.21	51	21.6%11 W · 40 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb9…9886backed Yes	1c	4,679$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.94	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed Yes	3c	4,500$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.5	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	+77.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ad2…fb00backed Yes	1c	4,450$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-85.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e3…bc83backed Yes	1c	4,371$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8ba…2066backed Yes	9c	4,276$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403.02	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No	53c	4,008$2,112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,895.86	199	57.3%114 W · 85 L	+6.9wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes	18c	3,938$709 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$708.91	93	34.4%32 W · 61 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f5f…a693backed Yes	9c	3,889$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cbc…1782backed Yes	7c	3,630$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.1	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.20per pick	40cpaid	+157%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf95e…b7f8backed Yes	9c	3,622$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed Yes	9c	3,592$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.53	81	43.2%35 W · 46 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5fa…ff6bbacked Yes	3c	3,563$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf9b…def7backed Yes	4c	3,536$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event