TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will José Cardoso win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,448,383
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$180,073

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,448,383 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2990…0c4cbacked Yes0c231,825$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf69…a604backed Yes0c200,929$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17a0…c06dbacked Yes0c200,912$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0dc…45e4backed Yes0c185,479$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc3e…b4c0backed Yes0c185,479$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c59…2e08backed Yes0c153,947$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f27…060bbacked Yes0c153,772$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ab…279bbacked Yes0c153,761$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x552f…0b62backed Yes0c153,645$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf739…342abacked Yes0c152,128$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a39…cdffbacked Yes0c151,187$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9515…8bb0backed Yes0c148,811$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95df…5f34backed Yes0c147,418$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1828…102abacked Yes0c144,780$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.7820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a0b…344dbacked Yes0c144,389$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.3920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc78a…42d8backed Yes0c142,440$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4251…b5e2backed Yes0c140,955$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.9620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa11d…3683backed Yes0c140,595$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x725f…d73ebacked Yes0c140,468$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4843…d69ebacked Yes0c139,109$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86cf…1383backed Yes0c138,537$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf3…9edfbacked Yes0c136,995$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dea…808ebacked Yes0c134,533$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde09…a41abacked Yes0c128,916$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4430…cd4abacked Yes0c126,343$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.3420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad0c…1bfabacked Yes0c112,329$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f6…196fbacked Yes0c51,390$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e5d…f7d4backed Yes0c49,660$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba23…531bbacked Yes0c47,940$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3028…148bbacked Yes0c43,323$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4584…fc6fbacked Yes0c43,150$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4591…aa5bbacked Yes0c40,900$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.970%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f15…51aebacked Yes0c40,780$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7870%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93d7…6b2bbacked Yes0c40,660$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a8b…dcecbacked Yes0c40,450$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ebf…62fbbacked Yes0c40,410$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4170%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13d9…b139backed Yes0c40,380$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3870%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0c…0496backed Yes0c40,310$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3170%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c0…c2f8backed Yes0c40,310$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf8f…cc90backed Yes0c40,300$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.370%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x254e…7629backed Yes0c40,160$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1cf…6a44backed Yes0c40,020$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x361f…8a37backed Yes0c39,940$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9470%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a1f…1b4ebacked Yes0c39,870$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28f8…ce2fbacked Yes0c39,830$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff39…6de6backed Yes0c39,590$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5970%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e8…dd98backed Yes0c39,440$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf76…c9babacked Yes0c39,410$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4170%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x048c…3d47backed Yes0c39,340$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4bc…ece8backed Yes0c39,320$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3270%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb461…1ddabacked Yes0c39,230$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes0c39,083$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0818216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe444…74c6backed Yes0c38,920$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4503…e250backed Yes0c38,900$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x174f…5a36backed Yes0c38,890$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8970%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3bd…8843backed Yes0c38,790$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7960%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd603…c2e6backed Yes0c38,750$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf69…deadbacked Yes0c38,500$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4cc…2280backed Yes0c38,370$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7150…eaadbacked Yes0c38,260$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2670%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a60…9008backed Yes0c38,250$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc198…72c1backed Yes0c38,130$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bbe…01fcbacked Yes0c38,040$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89c8…4bdebacked Yes0c37,940$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ddb…ec62backed Yes0c37,870$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f7…ef69backed Yes0c37,830$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed9c…dc2ebacked Yes0c37,760$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7670%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cea…53edbacked Yes0c37,700$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.760%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6748…6f8ebacked Yes0c37,350$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe384…d755backed Yes0c37,350$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e3e…eeb7backed Yes0c37,300$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.370%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9689…f61dbacked Yes0c37,110$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x308d…f9a8backed Yes0c37,100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb3…ed5dbacked Yes0c37,080$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0870%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7e8…6f25backed Yes0c36,770$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21eb…a39cbacked Yes0c36,760$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x545a…bb4fbacked Yes0c36,740$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7470%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2937…cd26backed Yes0c36,700$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8164…9933backed Yes0c36,580$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5870%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bb…9492backed Yes0c36,380$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3870%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84a7…8a85backed Yes0c35,040$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab8…a475backed Yes0c34,600$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.670%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca6a…7b17backed Yes0c34,260$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2670%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62a6…7d02backed Yes0c28,685$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3350…dad4backed Yes0c28,633$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd55…7955backed Yes0c28,570$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c28,544$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.544440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e06…8679backed Yes0c28,510$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5170%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eee…ee55backed Yes0c28,345$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9521…b694backed Yes0c28,336$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a4e…2168backed Yes0c28,130$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1370%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb40…3cddbacked Yes0c28,050$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e2…fb4cbacked Yes0c27,880$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8870%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1daf…461ebacked Yes0c27,860$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8670%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5433…462cbacked Yes0c27,840$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8470%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ba6…2b2ebacked Yes0c27,830$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8370%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe714…771ebacked Yes0c27,810$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8170%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb92…bb82backed Yes0c27,780$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7870%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ec…77aabacked Yes0c27,670$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7235…fb45backed Yes0c27,660$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6670%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.