Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe90b27f08082e17740308fdc957528d29a3f334a9ecaeefd056a3427a4cfdaaf

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,243,461
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,778,382

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,243,461 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,092 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes	12c	172,746$21,297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21,297.45	253	37.2%94 W · 159 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6851…5f85backed Yes	1c	90,367$1,195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,195.09	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1fd…cfb9backed Yes	1c	85,115$514 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$513.64	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5b…0584backed No	76c	79,493$60,049 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19,443.66	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-78.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes	12c	75,818$9,251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,251.44	73	57.5%42 W · 31 L	+10.1wins	+0.14per pick	44cpaid	+53.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes	12c	66,752$7,873 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,872.52	100	37%37 W · 63 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d5…c8d6backed Yes	0c	66,000$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes	14c	55,736$7,916 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,916.38	62	19.4%12 W · 50 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	13cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c13…a136backed Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc03…804cbacked Yes	11c	45,199$5,147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,146.73	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes	11c	43,975$5,024 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,024.39	74	36.5%27 W · 47 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes	6c	39,343$2,168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,167.93	74	20.3%15 W · 59 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x328d…f7a9backed Yes	21c	38,748$8,120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,119.96	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec7b…faadbacked Yes	2c	38,702$706 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$705.81	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	10cpaid	+742.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	8c	38,460$3,043 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,042.87	48	14.6%7 W · 41 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	+46.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x552d…656fbacked Yes	6c	35,064$2,183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,182.61	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	18c	34,253$6,176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,175.78	576	36.3%209 W · 367 L	-27.2wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e78…ea77backed Yes	13c	33,541$4,288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,288.24	48	39.6%19 W · 29 L	+3.2wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c2…55c3backed Yes	10c	32,988$3,229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,228.62	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes	16c	32,306$5,166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,165.93	180	36.7%66 W · 114 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0063…cb0abacked Yes	24c	31,361$7,659 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,659.17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	11c	29,911$3,322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,322.32	688	3.6%25 W · 663 L	-9.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes	10c	29,726$2,935 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,934.83	82	37.8%31 W · 51 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes	21c	28,615$6,124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,123.65	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	+10.7wins	+0.12per pick	41cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed Yes	17c	27,638$4,713 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,712.56	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	18c	26,658$4,719 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,719.06	563	14.6%82 W · 481 L	-39.3wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes	9c	25,598$2,331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,331.1	43	34.9%15 W · 28 L	+4.5wins	+0.11per pick	24cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0182…da1abacked Yes	4c	21,910$924 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$924.09	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes	12c	21,606$2,546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,545.66	143	30.8%44 W · 99 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+104.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7eb…eb13backed Yes	0c	21,594$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.03	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-4.0wins	-0.18per pick	32cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed Yes	10c	20,594$2,041 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,040.55	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c0e…c51dbacked Yes	33c	20,369$6,625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,625.26	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes	17c	20,000$3,425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,424.98	101	27.7%28 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	15c	19,651$2,872 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,871.58	166	12.7%21 W · 145 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes	1c	18,916$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.6	185	30.3%56 W · 129 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes	13c	18,519$2,387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,386.55	78	28.2%22 W · 56 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	13c	18,146$2,291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,290.9	182	16.5%30 W · 152 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7919…72b2backed Yes	16c	17,395$2,765 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,765.43	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.19per pick	56cpaid	+13%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes	0c	17,050$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.05	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-77.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes	9c	16,143$1,443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,443.45	302	33.8%102 W · 200 L	+19.2wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes	14c	15,854$2,237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,236.64	58	17.2%10 W · 48 L	-4.4wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-61%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a35…0d46backed Yes	20c	15,163$2,967 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,966.57	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked Yes	16c	15,063$2,350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,349.83	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	23cpaid	-77.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes	20c	15,050$3,035 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,035.04	86	40.7%35 W · 51 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a84…364ebacked Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x583f…2dabbacked Yes	0c	14,856$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.58	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa212…827fbacked Yes	18c	14,214$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,499.99	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb8b…3c8abacked Yes	19c	13,811$2,589 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,588.55	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9796…cd65backed Yes	18c	13,546$2,498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,497.97	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x465e…40c9backed Yes	7c	13,465$984 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$984	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	9cpaid	+110.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x286e…f192backed Yes	21c	13,100$2,771 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,771.15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe379…3c98backed Yes	16c	12,820$2,095 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,094.83	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Yes	30c	12,777$3,826 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,825.54	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-6.2wins	-0.24per pick	51cpaid	-60.1%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes	11c	12,460$1,432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,431.7	35	40%14 W · 21 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes	6c	12,436$719 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$718.61	134	44.8%60 W · 74 L	+17.1wins	+0.13per pick	32cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	12,054$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	134	4.5%6 W · 128 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b79…47e6backed Yes	18c	11,939$2,095 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,095.32	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-2.0wins	-0.17per pick	25cpaid	-87.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd74f…a245backed Yes	1c	11,822$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.71	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34e6…cd63backed Yes	13c	11,548$1,458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,457.66	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x674b…4f07backed Yes	18c	10,898$1,966 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,966.22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78c9…ddb1backed Yes	9c	10,680$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes	12c	10,232$1,206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,205.94	84	56%47 W · 37 L	+9.4wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes	12c	10,203$1,227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,227.38	117	41%48 W · 69 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedcd…2507backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db5…6489backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d15…6d90backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9e…2ca0backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55f2…63a0backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc104…6e04backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ef8…8ab5backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c3…0a7abacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd4c0…b3f9backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf1…2267backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e09…bf72backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe236…f126backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x96bc…4accbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x144a…ded8backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ce4…99e5backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f2b…ce3cbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42d9…0083backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ae3…496bbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e82…470fbacked Yes	1c	9,546$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.76	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-82.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x768b…de48backed No	79c	9,429$7,457 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,972.72	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.9wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde93…da1abacked No	79c	9,394$7,418 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,976.02	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	9,330$493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.41	234	4.3%10 W · 224 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25a7…8b7cbacked Yes	3c	9,303$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.56	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes	15c	9,000$1,307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,306.6	133	34.6%46 W · 87 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce7d…24fcbacked Yes	1c	8,956$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe54c…fcc0backed Yes	13c	8,497$1,138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,137.88	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes	16c	8,202$1,324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,324.11	315	34%107 W · 208 L	+7.7wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37a2…52abbacked Yes	31c	8,184$2,510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,510.02	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5980…1a1dbacked Yes	18c	8,044$1,422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,421.6	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-71.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe140…78d4backed Yes	14c	7,362$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98e3…c80fbacked Yes	18c	7,000$1,228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,227.89	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f2c…e158backed Yes	3c	6,981$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.18	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa287…f7dfbacked Yes	3c	6,776$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.2	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a9…e80cbacked Yes	10c	6,774$660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$659.9	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f34…b678backed Yes	0c	6,671$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.89	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	-18%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1953…17cabacked Yes	12c	6,653$808 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$807.73	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.35per pick	15cpaid	+134.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	6,493$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.26	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event