TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xedcd…2507

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
67
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Valorant, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Valorant at 55 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT2729.6%8 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-30.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$2,202Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,202.4
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,144Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+495.9%+$5,672.93
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$68.68
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.51
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$999.76
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.8
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$974Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$974.2
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$2,923Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,922.97
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.25
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$182.11
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.8
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.62
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.5
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$200.36
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+62.6%+$125.19
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+49.6%+$54.54
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+48.7%+$194.92
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$10.42
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick61cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Valorant — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: MIBR vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffsbacked 100 Thieves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+72%+$75.6
Valorant: Sentinels vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omegabacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$49.25
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omegabacked FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.57
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omegabacked FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+40%+$83.95
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omegabacked KRÜ Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.5
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omegabacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+27.6%+$110.39
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omegabacked FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$444Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$132.56
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses - Map 1 Winnerbacked 100 Thieves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+51%+$49.93
Valorant: MIBR vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffsbacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+131.3%+$39.4
All 9 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.31per pick43cpaid-84.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-78.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid+122.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-58.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$348Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$252
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+55.5%+$64.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.